There is some evidence that the refinery strikes are having an impact on civilian life in parts of Russia. Videos confirmed by BBC Verify have shown long queues at petrol stations in the far east and on a highway between St Petersburg and Moscow, while Kremlin-installed officials have introduced rationing of gasoline in occupied Crimea.
Owners of small and independent petrol stations in Siberia have told Russian media they have had to shut down due to ongoing issues with fuel supply. A manager in the Novosibirsk region compared the situation to the hyperinflation experienced by post-Soviet Russia.
“In my opinion we haven’t had a crisis like this since 1993-1994,” he told local outlet Precedent TV. “Many petrol stations have now suspended their operations. Perhaps it is better to wait out the crisis than make a loss.”
While Russia has traditionally seen price increases spurred on by summer travelling and oil refinery maintenance, the drone strikes are exacerbating it.
Retail petrol prices have surged, while wholesale prices – the cost at which retailers buy from producers – have risen even faster, growing by 40% since January.
The tightly controlled domestic media has hinted that drone strikes are a key factor for the shortages, with the daily business newspaper Kommersant attributing the shortfall to “unscheduled refinery shutdowns”.
But civilians in western Russia – including the Moscow and Krasnodar regions – appear to be largely unaffected. Some of those who spoke to the BBC said they were unaware of the shortages elsewhere in the country.
Russian officials have insisted that the situation remains under control. Last month Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the government had taken “active measures to ensure that the price level for energy and petrol remains stable”.
But Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced last week that a partial ban on petrol exports had been extended to the end of 2025. Opposition politician Mr Milov noted that the export suspension was relatively small and “won’t save the domestic market”.
The extent to which the strikes are impacting Moscow’s ability to use oil revenues to fund its war in Ukraine is also unclear.
The vast majority of Russia’s oil exports are in the form of unrefined crude oil, which do not appear to have been impacted by the strikes. An analysis carried out by Bloomberg at the end of September showed that crude oil exports – while less profitable than petrol and diesel – had reached a record high.
Mr Crump observed that the impact of the strikes could be strengthened if “further measures” and sanctions targeting oil exports were adopted by the West, but emphasised that the attacks were undermining Moscow’s ability to fight the war.
“This campaign alone will not bring Russia to its knees, but is definitely increasing the pain of the protracted conflict.”
Additional reporting by Christine Jeavans.