Crude oil imports fell by 662,000 barrels per day, impacting overall inventory dynamics significantly
U.S. crude oil inventories experienced a notable rise in the week ending September 26, 2025, increasing by 1.8 million barrels to reach a total of 416.5 million barrels, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This climb significantly exceeded market expectations, as analysts had predicted a more modest inventory rise of approximately 300,000 barrels. Despite this increase, commercial crude oil stocks remain about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, indicating that overall supply remains relatively tight compared to historical levels.
Changes in refinery utilization
At the same time, U.S. crude oil production saw a decline, slipping by 308,000 barrels per day to an average of 16.2 million barrels per day. This production drop contrasts with recent trends of steady or rising outputs and is noteworthy given the persistent global interest in supply levels amid fluctuating prices. Crude oil imports also fell, decreasing by 662,000 barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels. The decline in imports and production contributed to an unexpected dynamic in the inventory buildup.
The refinery sector also reflected some changes, with utilization rates dropping 1.6 percentage points to 91 percent, a decrease that signals less crude processing capacity being actively used compared to the prior week. This decrease in refinery activity correlates with reduced gasoline production, which declined to 9.3 million barrels per day. However, despite the fall in production, motor gasoline inventories showed an increase of 4.1 million barrels, totaling 220.7 million barrels, a figure that surpassed analyst expectations, which had predicted no change in gasoline stockpiles.
Middle distillate inventories—products including diesel and heating oil—also posted gains, rising 600,000 barrels in stocks, further defying analyst predictions of a decrease of 800,000 barrels. Nevertheless, distillate production dropped to 5 million barrels per day. Distillate inventory levels remain 6 percent below the five-year average, underlining tighter supply despite the recent inventory increase.
Volatility in crude futures prices
Total petroleum product supplied (a proxy for demand) over the past four weeks averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, showing a slight decline but still 1.2 percent higher than the same period the previous year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, while distillate demand fell by 4.4 percent year-on-year to 3.6 million barrels per day, reflecting seasonal and economic factors influencing fuel consumption.
Market reactions to the inventory and production data were mixed. Crude futures prices showed some volatility but generally traded lower leading up to the data release, with Brent crude dropping to around $65.17 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also falling. The inventory build, suggesting weaker near-term demand, weighed on prices. However, some price support came from concerns about potential supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainties.
The EIA maintained its scheduled weekly release of petroleum data despite a U.S. government partial shutdown that began overnight, underscoring the importance of transparency and market reliance on weekly crude oil and product statistics for assessing global supply and demand dynamics.