EV cargo trucks now have 22% market share in China, to hit 50% by 2028

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1. ## Summary: China’s Electric Truck Dominance

   **Market Leadership**: Chinese companies, led by BYD and Sany, control 80% of the global electric freight truck market, with 90,000 units sold last year. Nine Chinese manufacturers are now exporting to Europe, Mexico, and beyond.

   **The Scale Gap**: In China, electric trucks represent 22% of heavy-duty sales, while Western markets lag dramatically—just 1% in Europe and the U.S., and only 280 units sold in India last year. Tesla’s Semi truck has largely failed due to technical issues and high costs.

   **Why China Leads**: Success stems from 15 years of government mandates treating commercial EVs as a national priority, combined with massive scale and vertical supply chain integration. Chinese operators report 10-26% lower operating costs than diesel, with battery maker CATL claiming 35% cost reductions per ton-kilometer.

   **Key Challenges Elsewhere**:

   – **Infrastructure**: Trucks need 10x the battery capacity of passenger cars, making charging difficult
   – **Fragmented ownership**: Small operators lack capital for vehicles costing twice as much as diesel equivalents
   – **Limited incentives**: Western countries offer only tax credits versus China’s coordinated policy approach

   **The Solution**: China uses battery-swapping technology in 40% of its electric heavy-duty trucks, eliminating charging delays.

   **Global Expansion**: Chinese manufacturers are building factories from Georgia to Europe, following their successful electric car strategy. Industry experts predict they’ll disrupt the global freight market just as they did with passenger vehicles and buses.

2. Subsidize, industrialize, compete.

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