Russia Upgraded Missiles to Bypass Patriot. Ukraine Intercepts Only 6% of Ballistic Targets

https://sfg.media/en/a/russia-upgraded-missiles-patriot/

by sergeyfomkin

10 comments

  2. Ballistic missiles that are unpowered in their descent stage have predictable paths. That is how Patriot (and similar systems) intercept them.

    Sounds like the Russian missiles hold back a little fuel, and reignite the rocket engine to do a random course change in the last few seconds. Or twist a guidance fin.

    This is terrible to take out specific targets, such as Fortifications, military vehicles / assets. Poor CEP.

    However the Russian goal is just to kill civilians and inspire terror. In a densely populated city, they are going to hit something and kill someone. Mission accomplished.

    There are no good current solutions. Lasers might work, sometime in the future.

    WW2, when the Nazis launched ballistic missiles against England, the solution was D-Day invasion. Boots on the ground in northern France to take out the launch sites.

    Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to realistically invade Russia to a depth of say 1,000 km. So Ukraine must stay the course and make the war expensive for Russia. Keep taking out refineries and factories for military parts.

  3. It could also be a number of other factors limiting interception rates, anything from lack of interceptors, to the batteries being out of place, or them simply holding fire.

    I think from the lessons learned in the 12 day war between Israel and Iran we now know intercepting ballistic missile attacks are incredibly costly and unsustainable even in ideal conditions and with probably the most capable and well armed defenders.

  4. Russian advancement doesn’t seem to be stopping the kaputin 💥🔥🔥 of their energy sector! Thing might be a little tougher for the average Russian this winter❄️❄️❄️!

  5. Interesting they targeted a Bayraktar plant. Haven’t heard much about those in a while.

  6. For every Iskander-M or Kinzhal missile fired by Russia, NATO should provide one Tomahawk to Ukraine for retaliatory strikes on similar Russian targets.

  7. The silver lining is Raytheon updating the system further. Bad for everyone right now, but the patriot will be a better system for it

  8. It’s more complicated. Ukraine gets outdated PAC-2 missiles and even there they have a shortage, so they often have to prioritize only the most important targets, while leaving much of the country uncovered (this is why so many ballistic missile impacts near the frontlines aren’t intercepted – there’s no attempt to do so). Ukraine has only a handful of patriot batteries and they’re concentrated in a few big cities, and even there, they have a shortage of interceptors and the PAC-2s have a much higher change of missing than the PAC-3s.

  9. Most of these articles are forgetting that the interception rate is a constant 95% percent.

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