Natural gas (NG=F) futures lost steam after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 53 billion cubic feet (Bcf) into storage for the week ending September 26, sharply below the market expectation of 70 Bcf. Futures initially spiked more than 2% to $3.55 per MMBtu on the bullish surprise before selling pressure returned, pulling the front-month November contract down 1% to $3.442 per MMBtu, snapping a seven-session winning streak. Inventories now stand at 3,561 Bcf, leaving stocks 171 Bcf above the five-year average, though the surplus narrowed from 203 Bcf a week earlier.

European TTF Gas at €31.01 as Inventories Hold at 82.5% Capacity

The Dutch TTF benchmark settled at €31.01 per MWh, extending a weekly loss of 4.4% as softer LNG demand in Asia, particularly from China, freed up cargoes for Europe. Storage across the EU reached 82.5% of total capacity, below last year’s record highs but well above early 2025 expectations. Germany’s inventories sit at 76.6%, while France and Italy are both above 90%, cushioning winter supply risk. Traders note that the market is balanced for now, but a cold snap or renewed geopolitical shocks could quickly lift volatility.

Price Structure: NG=F Ascending Channel Faces Key Resistance

Natural gas has consolidated within an ascending channel since mid-September, with support at $3.40 and deeper floors at $3.31 and $3.24. Resistance stands at $3.49, where buyers have repeatedly tested the zone, followed by $3.58 and $3.68. A break above this cluster would open the path toward $3.85, while failure to defend $3.40 risks a pullback toward $3.24. The 50-day EMA sits at $3.36 and the 200-day EMA at $3.28, providing technical cushions. RSI at 55 reflects a neutral market leaning bullish, though long wicks near highs point to profit-taking.

Domestic Market Impact: Stable Retail Prices Despite Wholesale Swings

In Estonia, households are shielded from volatility. Residential tariffs remain at €0.54 per cubic meter, unchanged since June, and suppliers expect no hike through November. Compared with last winter, retail gas is projected to be 20–30% cheaper, even though wholesale contracts briefly surged to €58/MWh in February. Baltic supply security is supported by Latvia’s underground storage facilities and steady LNG flows, eliminating concerns of shortages this season.

LNG Flows: U.S. Cargoes Dominate Global Balances

The U.S. continues to anchor global LNG supply, with expanded export volumes reshaping flows to Europe and Latin America. Latin American LNG imports fell in September as winter demand faded, with Argentina, Brazil, and Chile reducing receipts. By contrast, Europe’s reliance on U.S. LNG has deepened, accounting for nearly 45% of regional imports year-to-date. LNG terminal congestion remains a risk, but rising U.S. export capacity is expected to mitigate shortages over the next two years.