Is Maryland having a business boom or seeing a mirage? Gov. Wes Moore, chamber weigh in

MIDDLE RIVER, Md. (WBFF) — Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and restaurant owner Antonio Olmedo share starkly different views of the state’s economy.

Olmedo and his wife, Julie Hueter, in 2019 purchased Carson’s Creekside, a family-owned restaurant in Middle River, nestled on a dock along Dark Head Creek. The couple said they have struggled to recover since changes to the restaurant industry in Maryland following the pandemic.

“The fees and everything increasing is so exponential that it is getting more and more difficult [to operate],” Olmedo said. “BGE, in one year, this year, is $43,524 more.”

To put that into perspective, we have to sell an extra 2,902 burgers at $15 a piece, or we would have to sell 10,881 Budweiser just for that increase. That’s just one increase,” Olmedo added.

The governor paints a different picture on social media, claiming he’s leading a turnaround: “We’ve created nearly 100,000 new jobs in two and a half years and welcomed 35,000 new businesses to Maryland.”

Moore also took a swipe at his Republican predecessor, former Gov. Larry Hogan, in the late September post. “Under the Hogan admin, Maryland ranked consistently low on affordability, wages, population size, and employment.”

Olmedo said other numbers consume him.

“We pay a lot of taxes, but we’re not seeing anything for it,” Olmedo said. “People have to make a choice. Even if there are new jobs, the cost of living here is so astronomical that people have to choose between groceries, gas, and paying their mortgage instead of going out.”

Moore acknowledged in his post, “Marylanders are still hurting, but we’re going to keep pushing our economy forward together.”

An economic puzzle – what is really happening?

Spotlight on Maryland asked Maryland Secretary of Commerce Harry Coker on Thursday via Zoom about the strength of the state’s business environment.

We continue to experience a strong economy despite the headwinds we are facing from any direction,” Coker said. “We are comfortable with our trajectory and our vision going forward.”

When asked about how many businesses have been added during the Moore-Miller administration, which assumed office in January 2023, Coker echoed the governor’s X post.

“We worked with our partners in the Department of Labor and gone through their statistics of new establishments,” Coker said. “There have been 35,000 new establishments that have been created.”

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U.S. Census data show that more than 28,400 new business applications with planned wages were filed between January 2023 and August 2025.

Coker dismissed the difference between the state data and the federal figures.

“I would imagine that the U.S. Census should check [its] data with the Maryland Department of Labor,” Coker said.

The Maryland commerce secretary did not have an answer for Spotlight on Maryland when asked how many businesses have been closed or relocated during the Moore-Miller administration. This data would aid in generating a comprehensive net business gain or loss number.

We haven’t provided that information yet because we track that in different ways,” Coker said. “It’s easy to get an application for new establishments, it’s not as easy – straightforward – to find out when a business stops.”

“I do not have a precise number on that,” Coker added.

Business advocate warns of tax burden damage, regulatory fatigue

Mary Kane, president and CEO of the Maryland Chamber of Commerce, said on Thursday in Annapolis, Md., she was skeptical of Moore’s 35,000 new business figure and its sourcing. She said business startups, or births, could mean anything from a sole proprietor to a registered limited liability corporation that pays only an employee-owner.

“I wouldn’t say [the business climate is] strong. We have a lot of issues, we have a lot of taxes, we have a lot of regulations that make it more difficult to do business here in Maryland,” Kane said. “Maryland, they do tend to look to our business community as a good place to find money when they need it.”

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The governor’s office told Spotlight on Maryland by email that data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics support Moore’s post. The federal data used, the Moore’s office said, measures “establishment births.”

This number is a lagging statistical indicator of private sector growth.

Spotlight on Maryland asked Moore’s office why the administration is not using business applications, a known leading indicator, to paint a current picture of the state’s business climate.

“We do consider both applications and establishment counts when thinking about economic health and the state of our economy,” said David Turner, Moore’s senior advisor and communications director. “However, an application does not mean there is an actual business that is formed, and therefore, there’s no guarantee that any Maryland jobs were created.”

Turner added that “in contrast, an establishment birth does signal an actual new business with employment.”

“Applications signal intent, but if we are looking at past economic activity, it is better to use actual actions rather than just intent,” Turner said.

U.S. Census Bureau data measuring business applications filed with planned wages between January and August have decreased from its high of 7,903 in 2023 to 6,703 during the same period in 2025.

This represents a 15.2% decrease in newly filed business applications with planned wages, according to the federal data.

Behind the numbers: reality on the ground

Olmedo said a frequent conversation he hears among employees and guests alike is the current state of the economy.

Some of the politicians go around saying that we have the most successful state,” Olmedo said. “When everyone is living not paycheck-to-paycheck, but behind paychecks at this point, trying to figure out how they’re going to make it living off of credit cards.”

The Carson’s Creekside team said the tight budgets his patrons are facing trickle down to his company.

“We are having many, many less customers,” Olmedo said.

Moore’s office did not accept Spotlight on Maryland’s request for an interview with the governor for this story.

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Spotlight on Maryland is a collaboration between FOX45 News, WJLA in Washington, D.C., and The Baltimore Sun.