Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en&utm_source=carnegieemail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=autoemail&mkt_tok=ODEzLVhZVS00MjIAAAGdSdICq_hKliOOKADEvq8WUqSBHj02B4V8KRAcaDR1m0PKv3Z7UG1N7zFS4Idm1XG2yjtRE9HBElCN5-V9x3H9R3RjhDVE2u3WIEF8zGTNLLNz

Posted by Any-Original-6113

3 comments

  1. In short:
    Most likely, the damage caused by Ukraine is large, but it is less than 38% and will likely be quickly eliminated if Ukraine does not increase the frequency of drone strikes

  2. Perun has a [really interesting video](https://youtu.be/jxac0wODnGQ) on the subject.
    And yes the idea is that such campaign can work, but need to constantly adapt and continue to strike as the refinery are being repaired. At first those reparations can be kinda mitigated using planned maintenance time. On the longer run, especially if the sanction do what they are expected to, repair work will become more costly and even maybe impossible.

    It is not as simple a one shot = one shut down, but it can be a really effective campaign if Ukrainian can maintain this rythm

  3. The author is a Russian: what is he supposed to say?

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