Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó responded to Holoda’s proposal by saying that no one had ever tried to operate the Adria–JANAF pipeline at one hundred percent, and that “no pipeline can operate at one hundred percent continuously.” Of course, pipelines have to be periodically shut down for maintenance. In response, Holoda points out that Hungary has storage tanks with reserves for temporary outages — enough to last for several months. Moreover, the Druzhba pipeline also occasionally breaks down. Over the past year, this has happened at least twice, according to CREA.
According to Holoda’s estimates, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline is capable of delivering up to 1.2 million tons of oil per month to Hungary and Slovakia. Converted to annual capacity, that amounts to a maximum of about 14 million tons. MOL’s two refineries have never processed such volumes, Holoda notes.
“People easily believe scare stories when they’re told, ‘if we stop buying Russian oil, fuel prices will rise above 1,000 forints ($3).’ But none of those who say this stop to think: ‘Since we’re buying oil cheaply from the Russians, because they are in a difficult position, then why isn’t our fuel cheaper?’ It isn’t cheaper because in this market everything is sold at the benchmark price.”
In addition, Holoda adds, Orbán’s government would no longer be able to use “cheap gas” as a campaign trump card. If the authorities sharply lowered gasoline and diesel prices to win votes, MOL’s competitors would appeal to Brussels, and the EU would force Hungary to abandon Russian oil imports as a violation of fair competition rules. He concludes:
“In short, if we stop importing Russian oil, it will be bad for Putin’s regime and his war machine, and even worse for MOL and the dozens of companies involved in the procurement process. The halt will be tangible in the state budget due to lower tax revenues, but most Hungarian consumers will hardly notice it. There will still be fuel at gas stations — and not at 200 or 1,000 forints [$0.60-$3].”Cheap oil in exchange for giving up the veto on EU decisions
In 2024, Russian oil delivered via the Druzhba pipeline accounted for 87% of Hungarian and Slovakian supply. The purpose of the sanctions exemption that allowed these countries to buy Russian crude was to give them additional time to reduce their dependence on Russian energy. However, they are using this exemption to undermine the EU’s common position on Ukraine and to block efforts to strengthen sanctions against Russia, which would require the approval of all 27 member states. When the EU was preparing to extend sanctions against Russia, including the freezing of roughly $200 billion in Russian assets held in European banks. Hungary declared it would veto the decision unless Budapest were allowed to continue receiving Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline via Ukraine.