Continuous US pressure on India to stop procuring Russian barrels seems to be bearing results with cargoes from the erstwhile Soviet Union declining, albeit not substantially
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REUTERS/YORUK ISIK
India’s crude oil imports during September 2025 again reflected its preference for heavy middle distillates with Russia and Middle East accounting for more than three-fourths of the cumulative cargoes shipped into the country.
Numbers from global real time data and analytics provider Kpler puts Russian barrels at the top, accounting for almost 34 per cent of the cages procured by the world’s third largest importer. Share of traditional suppliers, Middle East, stood at a little over 44 per cent.
India largely imports medium sour grades from these two regions, which favours its refinery structure that is more suited to heavy distillates such as diesel and jet fuel.
For light sweet grades, India balanced the cargoes between Africa and the US. While Nigeria accounted for almost 5 per cent of the cumulative imports last month, American barrels made up for a little over 4 per cent.
Russia was India’s largest supplier in September at 33.9 per cent share followed by Iraq (18.7 per cent), Saudi Arabia (12.8 per cent), the UAE (12.6 per cent), Nigeria (4.9 per cent) and the US (4.3 per cent).
Russian cargoes
However, continuous US pressure on India to stop procuring Russian barrels seems to be bearing results with cargoes from the erstwhile Soviet Union declining, albeit not substantially.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline, “Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier, contributing around 1,600 thousand barrels per day, or kb/d, (a 34 per cent share). However, this was roughly 160 kb/d below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025.”
Despite the dip, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners, given their high gross profit worth (GPW) margins and discounts relative to alternatives, he emphasised.
India imported around 1,598 kb/d of Russian crude oil last month, a decline of more than 10 per cent month-on-month and almost 13 per cent year-on-year.
On the US pressure, Ritolia explained that refiners continue to diversify volumes incrementally from the Middle East, Latin America, and the US, but this diversification is driven more by operational flexibility and arbitrage opportunities.
“At this stage, it’s improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy US and EU political pressure. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could make a token reduction—on the order of 100–200 kb/d—to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative,” he added.
Going ahead, Ritolia said that India-bound Russian spot loadings are expected to remain flat to slightly higher into Q4 2025 versus Q3.
“Still, ongoing disruptions to Russia’s downstream system suggest crude exports will remain healthy, and discounts could edge higher again to support flows. In Q4 current flows of around 1,600–1,800 kb/d of Russian imports look more realistic, with upside capped unless market dynamics (higher discounts) shift significantly in Russia’s favour,” he added,
Nevertheless, the signs of US pressure are visible in the current calendar year. For instance, Russian share declined from a high of 40.26 per cent (April 2025) to a low of 33.8 per cent (September 2025).
American supplies
Asked about importing more crude oil from the US, Ritolia said the same is possible. However, the upside is capped at around 350-450 kb/d.
India has limited upside, taking significantly higher US volumes. US grades face both logistical disadvantages and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems, which makes a material swing toward American crude unlikely, he explained.
“Though Indian refiners continue to diversify, and try to get cargoes that suit the economics, Kpler data shows Indian imports of US crude have averaged 280 kb/d so far in 2025, an increase from 199 kb/d in 2024, hitting a yearly high of 364 kb/d in July. I further don’t see significant upside!,” he added.
Published on October 5, 2025