Outgoing Japan PM Ishiba achieved some success in diplomacy and security

October 6, 2025

TOKYO – The presidential election for the Liberal Democratic Party will be held today, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will step down within the month. After the LDP’s crushing defeat in the July House of Councillors election, Ishiba remained in office without taking responsibility as LDP president, bringing Japanese politics to a standstill for roughly two months.

During this time, there continued to be major shifts in the security environment surrounding Japan, including the Sept. 3 gathering of the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea in Beijing to demonstrate their strategic cooperation. Political stagnation could not be allowed. Under the leadership of the new LDP president, Japan must quickly restore political stability, once again demonstrate leadership in the international community, and strive to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific region based on the rule of law.

Although these two months may have tarnished Ishiba’s reputation, his roughly one-year term since taking office in October last year can be objectively viewed as having seen some success in the fields of diplomacy and security. He visited the United States this February and met with President Donald Trump, building a certain degree of personal rapport with him. This is largely due to the legacy of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who established a close relationship with Trump, but stabilizing relations with the volatile Trump is also directly linked to Japan’s national interests, so it’s fair to say that Ishiba has been somewhat successful.

Regarding the U.S. tariff measures, Ishiba appointed his close aide, economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa, to handle negotiations, and after around 10 rounds of talks, an agreement was reached to reduce the 25% “reciprocal tariff” that the U.S. had announced to 15% and to lower the tariff on automobiles to 15%. Regarding Nippon Steel’s plan to acquire U.S. steelmaker U.S. Steel, an agreement was reached with Trump during Ishiba’s visit to the United States in February to treat the deal as an “investment, not an acquisition.” This led to a breakthrough in the plan, which had hit a snag due to a ban issued by former U.S. President Joe Biden.

Relations with China and South Korea also saw progress under Ishiba, a particularly liberal leader among previous LDP presidents. The administration of China’s Xi Jinping, which favors Ishiba’s political stance, decided in June this year to resume some imports of Japanese seafood, after a two-year ban that had been in place since August 2023 following the release of treated water from the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant (the ban remains in place for 10 prefectures, including Fukushima). In July, China resumed import procedures for Japanese beef, lifting a ban that had been in place since September 2001 due to the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). China had refused to lift these food import restrictions for political reasons, lacking scientific evidence. However, China’s decision to play this card during the Ishiba administration likely stems from its desire to support him, as he was an easy partner to work with. At the same time, there’s no doubt the intention was also to send a message to Ishiba’s successors that China is willing to move Japan-China relations forward if a liberal stance on historical perceptions is adopted.

In contrast, Ishiba has not made any concessions to China on security issues. At the Japan-U.S. summit, Japan confirmed with the Trump administration its opposition to “unilateral attempts to change the status quo through force or coercion” regarding Taiwan. It also steadily developed cooperative relationships with Australia, the Philippines and India, advancing the establishment of a network to contain China. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a member of the liberal Kochikai faction within the LDP, initially attracted high expectations from China. However, his policies, such as strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and promoting Japan’s defense capabilities, were the opposite of liberal, which led to China becoming greatly disappointed and Japan-China relations stagnating. In contrast, Ishiba, despite pursuing similar security policies, was not abandoned by China.

Regarding relations with South Korea, left-leaning South Korean President Lee Jae Myung chose Japan over the United States for his first bilateral visit in August, shortly after taking office, and promised to build a future-oriented relationship with Japan. Approaching Japan entailed political risks for Lee, so his first visit to Japan, under the banner of “pragmatic diplomacy,” must have been a major decision. However, many believe that such a decision would have been difficult under a conservative Japanese prime minister like Abe, and that it was only because of the liberal Ishiba that Lee was able to make the move. In fact, Lee’s remarks at a September press conference that “I believe Japan’s new administration will be more difficult than under Ishiba,” further confirmed that Ishiba’s liberal background was a factor in his decision. On Sept. 30, Ishiba visited South Korea for his final overseas trip before leaving office. While this visit was largely a reciprocal visit to Lee’s first trip to Japan, it also had great significance in resuming “shuttle diplomacy,” in which leaders visit each other. Given the threat of North Korea and the challenge posed by China, strengthening Japan-South Korea relations is extremely important, regardless of who is the leader.

Five candidates are competing in the LDP presidential election today. Based on the results of a Yomiuri Shimbun opinion poll, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi are in the lead. Regarding foreign and security policy, the five candidates are not all that different in fundamental terms, such as placing the Japan-U.S. alliance at the core and strengthening relations with allies and like-minded nations toward the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, both Koizumi and Takaichi have a history of visiting Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15, the anniversary of the end of the war. Visits to Yasukuni Shrine have been met with strong opposition from China and South Korea, and the United States has also been reluctant for Japanese prime ministers to do so. If they continue to insist on visiting the shrine even as prime minister, it will inevitably lead to stagnation in the field of diplomacy.

Meanwhile, as conservative LDP supporters are moving away from the party, each presidential candidate is under pressure to strengthen their conservative leanings to regain support. The future of Japan’s diplomacy will depend on whether the new LDP president can adopt a balanced political stance while also taking into account the impact on diplomacy.