Price action on Monday highlighted the 50-day moving average at $3.288 as a major pivot. The intraday low at $3.296 brushed this level before strong buying emerged. If this support gives way on a convincing close, prices could quickly retreat to the next major bottom near $3.063.
Short-term technicals show that the market has reclaimed the 50% retracement of the $3.063–$3.585 range at $3.324, signaling growing bullish sentiment. But to keep upward momentum intact, bulls need to clear the 50% level of the minor downswing from $3.585 to $3.296 — pegged at $3.4405. Meanwhile, the $3.385–$3.529 resistance zone remains a stubborn ceiling after capping last week’s rally.
Is Rising LNG Demand Enough to Offset Weak Domestic Consumption?
Despite seasonally low U.S. demand due to mild weather, LNG exports continue to support the market. Flows to U.S. export terminals held firm at 15.7 Bcf/day on Friday, only slightly below the prior week. Plaquemines LNG notched a new throughput record, signaling robust international appetite, particularly as European buyers remain concerned about winter supply gaps.
Still, domestic fundamentals are mixed. Lower-48 state gas demand slipped to 66.4 Bcf/day on Friday, down 7.4% year-on-year, while dry gas production remains near record highs at 108.4 Bcf/day — a 5.4% annual increase. This production growth, supported by a rising rig count now at 118, is a key bearish factor keeping rallies in check.
Does Europe’s Storage Risk Provide a Global Tailwind for Prices?
European prices surged nearly 5% on Monday as unplanned Norwegian maintenance and colder forecasts stoked supply concerns. Dutch TTF rose to €32.95/MWh, drawing renewed focus on storage levels, which sit at 85% — below the five-year seasonal norm of 90%. Energy strategists warn that a prolonged cold snap could quickly drain inventories, supporting global LNG flows and keeping a bid under U.S. prices.
Short-Term Outlook: Bullish with Resistance in Focus
The technical bounce off the 50-day moving average and reclaiming of key retracement levels suggest a near-term bullish tone, especially with LNG exports firm and European supply risk rising. However, resistance near $3.4405 and the $3.529 cap must be cleared for sustained upside. If bulls fail to hold above $3.324, the recent momentum could unwind quickly. For now, the path of least resistance remains higher — but only while the 50-day holds.