We used data from Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (Export Sales Reporting) and used GGplot2 in R to show that after Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China plunged to multi-decade lows. Even a brief rebound in 2021–2022 wasn’t enough to recover.

Posted by forensiceconomics

8 comments

  1. Why are we assuming this isn’t just another one of those – years next to the other + years? Seems like we’re still following the same typical cycle without enough data to show a trend break.

  2. Some suggestions: first, I think it might be worth labeling more years on the first graph; at least every 5, and definitely the current year. Second, I’m not a big fan of the second chart. Because of how percentages work, it ends up being highly misleading; if a good had a 1000% increase followed by three 70% decreases, you’d end up at around 30% of the original value, but the scale of the chart would be blown out by the 1000%. Which is sort of what’s happening here: the 60% decreases look insignificant because of the big spike at the start. I think it might work better with the second graph showing the difference in raw tons from year to year.

  5. So I guess Brazil and Argentina are the biggest soyfacers

  6. i grew up in Arkansas, where soybeans and rice are major exports, especially to China (yes, China purchased a ton of rice from America). Soybeans, Rice, and Cotton are the major crops of the area. Over half of all soybeans grown in Arkansas are exported overseas (i don’t have the breakdown by country yet). Arkansas soybean production is valued at approximately $1.5 Billion annually. Something like $7 Billion annually in total crop exports plus an additional $1 Billion annually in finished food products.

    When the 2008 financial crisis crashed, it was banks in Arkansas that were some of the very first to fail. Farmers don’t have a lot of liquid cash. All money is tied up in the farm and the equipment.

    Arkansas has voted heavily Republican for as long as I can remember, for sure back to Regan. Other than the Bill Clinton years, but that was his home state, and even then Clinton barely got 50% of the vote in the State. Arkansas has voted Republican straight up since then, including 65% of the State for Trump in 2024.

    Killing trade to China is going to decimate Arkansas farmers. Don’t be surprised if we see more cease & desist lending orders against Arkansas banks as their cash reserves start to dry up, and potentially even losing more regional banks to closures or consolidation.

  7. What if we stopped buying all of their cheap shit? I doubt European nations would welcome Walmart supercenters.

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