Several economic experts see the construction industry facing a challenging financial landscape in the near future.

Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean, Business Council of BC vice-president of policy David Williams, former Province of British Columbia Finance Minister Carole Taylor and Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA) chief economist Jock Finlayson all predicted stormy weather for the industry and greater economy at the Economic Outlook – Strategies for Building in Uncertain Times panel at the ICBA’s recent Construction Innovation Summit in Vancouver.

Williams pointed out while the common narrative is that U.S. President Donald Trump is “the source of all our maladies,” Canada’s economic woes gestated long before Trump’s second term began in January.

“The economy in both Canada and B.C. was propped up by supercharged population growth and spending, neither of which is sustainable,” he said.

Finlayson said British Columbia was in solid financial shape during the late John Horgan’s time as premier but “since (current Premier) David Eby arrived three years ago our finances have gone south at an absolutely jaw dropping pace.”

“The growth of employment and the economy through the public sector has run out of gas completely, and growth will have to come from the private sector, where the outlook is mixed but we don’t have any choice,” he said.

The tenuous state of the B.C. real estate market was also raised, but Jean noted “the big obstacle in construction is labour.”

“Shortages still exist and we’re talking about public finance deterioration but a lot of the strategy hinges on building, including the government itself taking on homebuilding,” Jean said.

Taylor added the federal government recently set a goal of 500,000 housing units a year but questioned how that could be accomplished.

“It’s only possible if you pull from private sector resources, and it’s hard to see that when the industry is running pedal to the metal in many provinces,” Jean said.

“The cost of building has skyrocketed, incomes have not kept pace and the previous model of multi-unit dwellings which was based on pre-sale has collapsed. If we build those structures going forward there’s going to have to be a different business model,” Finlayson added.

Williams said U.S. tariffs were a concern but as current exports are covered under the USMCA agreement the situation could be worse.

“The competitive advantage in Canada has been our Westminster system of governance, natural resources, an educated population and great access to U.S. markets, which is no longer guaranteed,” he said.

“The type of investment we need to attract has to be bolted down, so it can’t just pick up and walk across the border,” Williams added.

“Canadians look at chaos on U.S. politics, and say America is falling apart and maybe in some ways it is, but behind the scenes in innovation, science, technology the U.S. is leaving us in the dust,” Finlayson said.

“We need to figure out what we’re good at producing and get that out in global markets. I don’t see our politicians in any of the parties acknowledging that.”

Jean said while the Canadian government is tripling its defence budget, “to avoid that becoming a money pit that goes nowhere there has to be a deep focus to funding R&D and create spillovers for business and startups.”

“That’s what the U.S. has done for decades and it’s where we need to go,” he said.