Moldova’s economy is forecast to accelerate next year, supported by a landslide victory by a pro-European party in parliamentary elections last month.
The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won 50.2% of the votes and 55 of 101 seats in the parliamentary election, despite alleged interference by Moscow. The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc (PEB) received 24.2% of the vote on September 28.
“The outcome of Moldova’s parliamentary election reduces near-term political uncertainty and will support greater integration with the EU,” Fitch Ratings said on September 30. Strong European Union (EU) support has “helped Moldova navigate successive shocks in recent years, but high geopolitical risk and projected large twin deficits remain credit weaknesses.”
The credit ratings agency has forecasted that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rise to 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, from 1.4% in 2025. The country’s current account deficit will decline to 12.5% in 2027, from 16% in 2026, according to Fitch.
The country, with a population of 2.4 million, remains vulnerable to external energy shocks and geopolitical uncertainty. The former Soviet Republic, wedged between Ukraine and Romania, still finds itself caught between its aspirations to the EU and Moscow’s strategic geopolitical ambitions.
EU Welcomes Results of Elections
The EU welcomed the results of the parliamentary elections. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that Moldova indicated a clear choice – “Europe. Democracy. “Freedom.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X that Moldovan President Maia Sandu “saved democracy” and “stopped Russia in its attempt to take control over the whole region.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky likewise praised the results, adding that “these elections showed that Russia’s destabilizing activity loses, while Moldova in Europe wins.”
The Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that “hundreds of thousands of Moldovans were deprived of the opportunity to vote in Russia because there were only two polling stations open to them, which was of course insufficient.”
The election took place amid heightened tensions between the West and Russia. Moscow has sparked concerns about a broader hybrid war after Russia made multiple unprecedented airspace violations into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastern front of Estonia, Romania, and Poland last month.
“Moldova’s parliamentary election…was never just about domestic politics,” Tinatin Akhvlediani, Research Fellow at Centre for European Policy Studies, wrote on October 1. “It was a test of whether one of Europe’s fragile democracies could withstand relentless Russian interference – and whether the European project and its ideals could still prevail on its frontiers.”
Russia Accused of Meddling in Elections
Sandu, who ran for office in December 2020 and re-elected in November 2024, stated that the country had successfully repelled Russian interference in its elections..
Moscow failed to achieve its objectives “to capture Moldova through the elections,” she said. The Moldovan foreign ministry accused Russia of “notable attempts” at election interference.
On September 30, Moldovan authorities investigated whether Russia had mobilized groups to incite mass riots and destabilize Moldova after the elections. They detained 74 people during 250 raids across the country.
Russia, however, accused Moldovan authorities of having obstructed its citizens residing in Russia from casting their vote. Igor Dodon, leader of the Russophile PEB, said that there were instances of harassment towards Russophile voters, mostly his own electoral base.
Dodon called for protests in the aftermath of the parliamentary elections. While about 1,000 pro-Russian demonstrators gathered in front of the parliament on September 29, he accused authorities of preventing several thousand others from reaching the center of Chisinau.
Moldova Is One of Europe’s Poorest Countries
Despite optimism about EU integration, Moldova remained one of the poorest countries in Europe. The country’s GDP per capita stood at $3,872.52 in 2024, well below the EU average of $43,145.
Moldova’s GDP per capita, source TradingEconomics
Moldova’s GDP grew by 1.6% in the second quarter this year from the same period last year, compared to Q2 of 2024. The country’s GDP was €4.2 billion in the second quarter this year.
“The welfare and income gap between Moldova and the adjacent EU countries remains quite high,” Robert Sperfeld, Senior Programme Officer in the East and South East Europe Division of the Berlin-based Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, said. “The ongoing Russian war against neighboring Ukraine that poses unpredictable risks for bigger investments in the country,”
The EU will support Moldova’s economy through a three-year €1.9 billion facility. The facility aims to support greater investment, including reducing infrastructure bottlenecks and galvanising structural reforms in key economic sectors.
The Moldovan government approved a bill on September 24 to ensure the safer export of Moldovan goods bound for the EU. The measure represented an essential step towards the free movement of goods in accordance with European legislation, according to former Minister of Economic Development, Doina Nistor.
Moldova Remains Deeply Divided
Despite the pro-European political election victory, Moldova remains deeply divided. PAS has increasingly relied on the diaspora as its key support constituency.
In last year’s presidential election, 83% of the 330,000 voters living abroad supported Sandu, according to the European Union Institute for Strategic Studies. The PAS is now responsible for delivering “tangible results” for the country.
September election results, source: EUISS
“No more excuses for both Moldova’s government and the EC and its member states to delay accession negotiations,” Sperfeld said. “Tangible results and clear benefits of the pro-democratic and pro-European path must be realised.”
Simultaneously, the election sent a message to the Kremlin about the potential for dragging the country into a proxy conflict. They don’t want a pro-Russian government to derail the country’s EU ambitions, according to analysts.
The elections are a “chance for Europeans to understand Putin’s disinformation playbook and protect other vulnerable states from his influence,” Leo Litra, visiting fellow of the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR), and Gabriele Valodskaite, coordinator of the ECFR European Security Programme, wrote.
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