Sports Mole previews Saturday’s World Cup Qualifying – Europe clash between Estonia and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Following two spectacular wins last month, Italy will aim to stay in contention for automatic entry to World Cup 2026 when they visit Estonia on Saturday night.
The teams meet in Tallinn, just a few weeks on from the Azzurri’s five-goal success on home turf, as new boss Gennaro Gattuso plots a straight path to next summer’s finals.
Match preview
After consecutive World Cup qualifying failures, Italy began their quest to end 12 years of hurt with a humbling 3-0 loss in Norway, which spelt the end for Luciano Spalletti and led to Gattuso taking the helm.
The 2006 world champion inherited a team trailing far behind the Norwegians in Group I, but he intends to stop his country from missing out on a third straight global finals.
With a nine-point deficit and two games in hand, Italy came into September’s international window playing catch-up, and they began by sweeping aside Estonia in Bergamo.
Having finally broken through just before the hour mark, Gattuso’s new-look side then sprinted to an emphatic 5-0 win, before heading to Hungary three days later.
There, the Azzurri took on their likely rivals for second place – and a precious playoff spot – Israel. After trailing twice, Italy then roared into a 4-2 lead and were apparently coasting to victory, but they shipped two late goals towards the end of a truly chaotic contest.
Leaving their new coach muttering unrepeatable thoughts on the touchline, it seemed another woeful page would be written in La Nazionale’s qualifying history, before Sandro Tonali‘s stoppage-time winner dramatically made it 5-4.
That was followed by spiky scenes involving Gattuso and his captain Gianluigi Donnarumma at the final whistle, but before next week’s rematch in Udine, the Italians must first do a double over Estonia.
While their visitors are still contenders for top spot, trailing Norway by six points but with one game in hand, Estonia have accrued just three from five Group I fixtures.
Sitting 129th in the latest FIFA World Rankings – 119 places below Italy – they must finish with three straight wins to have any chance of making the finals.
More realistically, a battle with Moldova awaits, as the pair fight to avoid finishing last in the five-team table.
Jurgen Henn‘s men suffered summer losses against Israel and Norway, before being thumped 5-0 in Italy, so their only points have come from a 3-2 win in Chisinau.
Held to a goalless draw by fellow minnows Andorra in their most recent outing – a friendly fixture last month – Estonia have now failed to score in more than 300 minutes of action, so ending that drought will be a priority.
After hosting four-time world champions on Saturday, the little Baltic nation will then welcome Moldova to Tallinn, and that surely offers their best chance of picking up points.
Estonia World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
L W L L L
Estonia form (all competitions):
L W L L L D
Italy World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
L W W W
Italy form (all competitions):
L D L W W W
Team News
Though Gattuso has spoken of his willingness to adopt a back three when required, Italy are set to start with a four-man defence against relatively modest opposition.
Last month, Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean were paired to fearsome effect, scoring three goals between them in the reverse fixture, and they may link up once again.
However, the Azzurri’s wingers from that game must change, as Napoli’s Matteo Politano and Lazio captain Mattia Zaccagni have both withdrawn from the squad due to injury.
As cover, Gattuso then drafted in Leonardo Spinazzola and Roberto Piccoli, but Atletico Madrid’s Giacomo Raspadori and Bologna pair Riccardo Orsolini and Nicolo Cambiaghi could well be vying for one place.
Italy’s midfield options have been boosted by the return of in-form Bryan Cristante, who had previously been out of favour, while Kean and Piccoli’s Fiorentina teammate Hans Nicolussi Caviglia could make his debut.
With a much smaller pool to choose from, Estonia’s 26-man squad mostly features familiar faces, though PAOK forward Karel Mustmaa has been called up for the first time.
Captain Karol Mets returns after missing last month’s games through injury, hoping to increase his century of international caps.
However, veteran striker Henri Anier – the hosts’ leading active scorer – is suspended, leaving Rauno Sappinen to lead their attack.
Having recently impressed for loan club Werder Bremen despite conceding four goals against Bayern Munich, goalkeeper Karl Hein – owned by Arsenal – should start behind a defence featuring ex-Tottenham Hotspur defender Maksim Paskotsi.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Saliste; Shein, Palumets; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Orsolini, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Kean, Retegui
We say: Estonia 0-3 Italy
Qualifiers are rarely straightforward for Italy, but they should ultimately get the job done in Estonia, keeping some pressure on Group I leaders Norway.
The hosts held out for 57 minutes in last month’s reverse fixture, so they can cause more frustration this weekend, before fading in the closing stages.
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