US crude exports have surged in recent months as buyers and sellers respond to shifting dynamics in global oil markets. US exports have rebounded from some 3.2 million barrels per day in July — one of the weakest months since 2023 — back to around 4 million b/d in late August and in September. Reasons include still-growing US oil production, seasonality in refinery runs, unequivocal price signals and political considerations. But analysts warn the trend could be short-lived, as many of these market dynamics have already begun to ease or reverse, and as US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) faces greater competition globally. US crude production continues to grow despite lower prices, hitting a record 13.6 million b/d in July. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects 2025 output to average 13.5 million b/d, up from 13.2 million b/d last year. US refiners ran more light, sweet crude from shale fields in the summer months due to attractive pricing relative to the heavy, sour crudes that refiners, particularly on the Gulf Coast, generally prefer to run. RBN Energy analysts say the start-up of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in Canada contributed to the dynamic by shifting more heavy, sour Canadian crude to that country’s West Coast for export to Asia, rather than to the US Gulf Coast for re-export, which narrowed discounts for Western Canadian Select and made WTI more attractive. Diverted Canadian barrels helped contribute to low inventories and softer discounts at the Nymex pricing point of Cushing, Oklahoma, during the first half of the year, which also helped to keep domestic barrels at home. Meanwhile, strong refining margins prompted high run rates at US refineries, which processed more than 17.2 million b/d from May-August — one of the highest run rates in years. US refiners, including Exxon Mobil, have also made investments to process more light, sweet crude.
