Ramping up its chip industry is a way for Beijing to beat restrictions imposed by Washington on exports of the most advanced chips — used to power AI systems — to China – Copyright AFP/File STR
The US is threatening more tariffs as China moves to protect its rare earths stranglehold. Trump is also threatening to walk out on talks with Xi Jinping. As ill-considered all-round knee jerks go, this is a classic.
Wall Street can thank itself for its subservient acceptance of the trade situation and the recent meltdown. China can thank itself for creating an easy target for retaliation. Absolutely no positives are yet to be seen here.
You can argue just barely that the tariffs are a bargaining chip. You can also argue that China is therefore calling the shots. Tariffs are no longer a novelty. They’re starting to look very like the only shot available to the US, and, worse for America, purely reactive.
China can also play favorites with its export market, which just happens to be the whole world. Rare earths are the big noise in commodities. That gives China a lot of bargaining power. The US is hardly the only market for rare earths.
Tariffs are also paid by US importers, and nobody else. They’ll be a direct hit on the entire US supply chain, driving up prices. It’s not like China doesn’t know that.
Restricted supply doesn’t exactly help America’s sacred Big Tech, either. They’ll have to spread the cost impact, wear the added prices, or pass on at least some of those added costs.
That hardly helps the development of new AI chips and the shipload of new technologies of which Wall Street is so enraptured. You’d think somebody would condescend to be a lot less apathetic about the constant instability of core prices.
Nor is the market doing much about shoring up its supply from other sources. There are plenty, in various degrees of capacity for managing some of the demand. Even the basics, like electronics recycling, aren’t getting much traction. The market seems to be waddling along just accepting whatever hits it.
As usual, any sort of longer-term solution isn’t even under discussion. There seems to be no clear path to basic trade. Everything is an issue, whether anyone likes it or not.
They don’t.
The EU’s not happy with rare earth licensing requirements. That’s pretty standard for any moves in this extremely sensitive sector. The rare earths supply chain is creaking under the strain, and the EU’s many tech giants are wary of any further requirements.
The Chinese side is pretty straightforward. They need to protect and enhance their position, including their own new technologies. Their rare earths are hugely valuable, and they also have serious possible price issues with the volatility of this edgy market. Lithium prices have been on a wild ride recently. Lithium used to be the must-have rare earth. The lithium price bottomed out very quickly. You can see why China is trying to get into as strong a market position as possible.
This is not a problem that seems in any hurry to solve itself. The markets need to focus on sustainable trade and price policies. Otherwise, everyone loses.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.