Asia-Pacific traders face a relatively busy week, dominated by Chinese trade and inflation figures, Australia’s employment data, and ongoing political strains in Japan.
The week starts quietly on Sunday with New Zealand’s Business NZ PSI for September, before turning to China’s trade balance later in the evening.
Exports and imports will be closely scrutinized to confirm that last month’s modest rebound in external demand is holding. Consensus looks for exports to rise 6% YoY and imports to climb 1.5%, suggesting steady but uneven momentum.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes will be released on Monday. The AUD has been holding strong against most majors and particularly against its neighbor, the NZD, with Chinese stimulus providing a better outlook for Australia.
Asia traders will also look into Chinese inflation data on Tuesday to monitor whether the ongoing deflation (currently -2.3% y/y) will continue, which should prompt or stop further stimulus from the PBoC.
Wednesday is the busiest session for AUD traders, with a comprehensive Australian labor market update due at 20:30 ET.
Employment change is expected to rise by 17K after last month’s decline of -5.4K, taking the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
Beyond the data, Japan remains in the spotlight following Sanae Takaichi’s election as head of the LDP.
While the Nikkei celebrated the appointment of the first woman in power in Japan, the yen weakened sharply amid mounting fiscal concerns and a coalition deadlock with Komeito.
The coming week will be crucial to see whether progress is made on forming a government and whether the JPY continues to bleed.