Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s World Cup Qualifying – Europe clash between Estonia and Moldova, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Cut adrift at the bottom of Group I, minnows Estonia and Moldova will meet for a World Cup qualifier on Tuesday.
Beaten by Italy at the weekend, the hosts have a three-point lead over their visitors following a 3-2 win in an eventful reverse fixture.
Match preview
When Estonia visited Moldova in March, the pair played out a lively five-goal contest, with an early red card restricting the home side’s chance of success in Chisinau.
Moldova’s Maxim Cojocaru got himself sent off after just five minutes, and the hosts were trailing 2-0 when Estonia’s Kevor Palumets was dismissed shortly after the break.
Ultimately, the Estonians ran out 3-2 winners at Stadionul Zimbru, but since then, neither side has picked up a single point.
Norway, Italy and Israel have pulled clear at the top of Group I, leaving the bottom two to fight for the right not to finish last.
Sitting 129th in the latest FIFA world rankings, Jurgen Henn‘s Estonia side had failed to even score for more than 300 minutes before welcoming Italy to Tallinn on Saturday night.
Having lost 5-0 to the Azzurri last month, the little Baltic nation fared much better on home turf, only conceding three times before substitute Rauno Sappinen profited from a glaring Gianluigi Donnarumma mistake.
That at least ended their goal drought, and now the Blueshirts hope to add more points to a modest tally.
Though Moldova enjoyed a relatively strong run of results last year, losing just two of 10 matches across all competitions, 2025 has failed to live up to that promise.
The Tricolorii have lost all seven of their games so far, including a chastening 11-1 demolition at the hands of Norway last month.
The nation’s worst-ever defeat prompted coach Serghei Clescenco to step down after four years in charge, and Lilian Popescu was swiftly appointed to replace him.
The former Under-19s boss inherited a team stranded at the foot of Group I, without a single point on the board, and he started off with another loss last Thursday.
Moldova were beaten 2-1 by neighbours Romania in a Bucharest friendly, but they at least found the net for just the second time in five fixtures.
Estonia World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
L W L L L L
Estonia form (all competitions):
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Moldova World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:
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Moldova form (all competitions):
L L L L L
Team News
Estonia’s 26-man squad is led by captain Karol Mets, who has returned after missing last month’s games through injury, and he added to his century of international caps as a substitute on Saturday.
The St Pauli defender replaced Marten Kuusk, who had earlier conceded a penalty, so he may now partner ex-Tottenham Hotspur man Maksim Paskotsi at the back.
At the other end of the spectrum, PAOK forward Karel Mustmaa was sent on for his senior debut against Italy, but either Sappinen or Alex Tamm should lead the hosts’ attack.
Meanwhile, Arsenal-owned goalkeeper Karl Hein – currently on loan at Werder Bremen – saved Mateo Retegui’s spot kick and is sure to start between the posts.
In Thursday’s friendly – Popescu’s first game in charge – Moldova made a number of changes to the team that shipped 11 against Norway.
It remains to be seen whether the likes of Nichita Motpan and experienced centre-back Sergiu Platica will return on Tuesday, but familiar faces such as Maxim Cojocaru and Artur Ionita have been left out of the squad.
Star striker Ion Nicolaescu – the Tricolorii’s all-time top scorer, who was on target in the reverse fixture – is unavailable due to injury. So, either Vitalie Damascan or Alexandru Boiciuc should start up front.
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Mets, Paskotsi, Saliste; Soomets, Palumets; Kait, Shein, Saarma; Sappinen
Moldova possible starting lineup:
Avram; Motpan, Craciun, Baboglo, Platica, Reabciuk; Rata, Perciun, Bodisteanu; Postolachi; Damascan
We say: Estonia 2-0 Moldova
Both teams generally struggle to score – albeit they shared five goals when either side went down to 10 men in March – so the opening goal could prove crucial.
With 25 goals conceded so far, Moldova’s defence is clearly vulnerable, so Estonia can do the double over their Group I rivals.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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