Despite claims to the contrary from the White House, the economy nationally and regionally is limping along, with rising inflation, slow job growth, and weakening consumer confidence, according to the latest reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
For Rhode Island that means unemployment is nearly a percent higher than the New England average, and slightly above the national unemployment rate; personal income is rising slower than other New England states, with the exception of Vermont, and well below the U.S. average; home prices are increasing at a higher rate than all but Connecticut in New England, and well above the national average; and rental prices are increasing faster than other states in the region.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston published its New England Economic Conditions report last week, and before that its Beige report, which gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions.
Neither reflects the rosy picture with which the White House is trying to portray the economy.
The Beige report said prices and wages were increasing at a modest pace, consumer spending was flat for retailers and restaurants and down slightly for tourism. And it warned that “several contacts perceived that the combination of tariffs and historically high uncertainty threatened to dampen consumer spending moving forward.”
And in its New England Economic Conditions report, the Boston Fed said, “the deterioration in consumer confidence can be attributed primarily to pessimism about future economic conditions, with the regional future expectations index hitting its lowest point since March 2013.”
The Boston Fed also warns that “if labor demand continues to cool, employers may explore additional strategies beyond hiring freezes to reduce workforce size, as evidenced by recently announced layoff plans from several regional employers.”
Here’s a look at some of the Boston Fed’s more prominent economic data and observations:
Payroll employment growth rates for New England and the United States are among the slowest since 2011. In August, total non-agricultural payroll grew nationally by 0.9 percent; New England and Rhode Island, each grew 0.3 percent. For the Providence-Warwick area, however, total non-agricultural payroll decreased by 0.3 percent.
Unemployment rose from August 2024 to August 25 by 0.5 percent in New England to 4.1 percent, and by 0.1 percent nationally to 4.3 percent. The Boston Fed listed the Rhode Island unemployment rate at 4.4.
For the 16th consecutive month, inflation (Consumer Price Index) in New England (3.7 percent) was higher than the national rate (2.9 percent).
Inflation was driven significantly by the continued increase in house prices, although both in the region and nationally, the “house-price appreciation continued the deceleration that began at the start of 2025.” According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, regional house prices grew 3.9 percent from July to July, a significant drop from the 7.6 percent recorded in January. Nationally, house price growth dropped 2.3 percent year over year. In Rhode Island house prices were up 6.9 percent in the second quarter, compared to the previous year.
Total personal income, for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the year prior, grew by 4.5 percent nationally, 3.2 percent in New England, and 3.6 percent in Rhode Island.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index remained between 80 and 100 throughout 2025, “declining from the above 100 readings” during the previous three years. The regional pattern, the Boston Fed said, “mirrored the national consumer confidence trajectory.” However, expectations were even more pessimistic. According to the Boston Fed, from September to September, future expectations fell in New England from 88.4 to 50.6, and nationally from 82.8 to 73.4.
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