Gennaro Gattuso’s Italy is playing for its future in Udine. After the 3-1 victory over Estonia, the Azzurri are almost certain not to reach 1st place (practically in Norway’s hands) but remain in the race for the playoffs.
To access the playoffs, securing 2nd place in the group is necessary, and it would be important to do so by defeating Israel in the match hosted by a secured Udine.
Formation change and Raspadori-Pio ballot
Gattuso must do without Bastoni due to suspension and Kean due to injury: switching to a 3-5-2 formation.
In front of Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Mancini, and Calafiori should play. On the wings, Dimarco and Cambiaso, while in the midfield, Barella, Tonali, and Cristante will provide balance and quality. In attack, Retegui is confirmed with Raspadori favored over Pio Esposito to partner him.
The 2005 class player, who scored his first national goal against Estonia, might start from the bench and be an additional weapon during the match.
Italy is at 12 points with one game less than Israel (stuck at 9), so a win tonight would mathematically guarantee the playoffs.
In case of a draw, at least one point would be needed in the last two games against Moldova and Norway, considering Israel has one less game than Italy.
A defeat, however, would force the Azzurri to earn at least four points in the last two matches. Facing Norway on the last day is not a desirable scenario.
Can they reach first place? Only in one case
Even if Italy were to win all matches and beat Norway, it would almost certainly not be enough to reach 1st place. To aim for the 1st position, the Azzurri must win them all, hoping Norway stumbles against Estonia in November.
Norway indeed leads the group with 18 points and an impressive +26 goal difference. Italy follows with 12 points and +7 GD, then Israel with 9 points (-1), Estonia with 3 points, and Moldova still at 0.
In case of a tie on points, the first criterion is the overall goal difference, followed by goals scored, points, and goal difference in head-to-head matches.
Udine secured: maximum security
The match at Udine’s Bluenergy Stadium will be accompanied by a massive security plan. Concurrently with the game, a pro-Palestine march with about 10,000 participants is expected.
The Prefect of Udine has declared the match “high-risk”: the sale of beverages in glass or cans is prohibited, external structures of venues have been removed, and red zones have been created around the stadium. The city will be patrolled by helicopters and law enforcement to prevent any tension.
Playoffs, how they work and possible opponents
Italy’s fate, Israel permitting, seems to pass through the playoffs: 16 teams, facing off in 4 mini-tournaments with semifinals and finals from which the 4 qualifiers emerge.
The 12 second-placed teams from each group plus the 4 best Nations League teams that finished their qualification group from third place down access the playoffs.
Currently, the Azzurri – as a seeded team – would face Moldova, Sweden, Northern Ireland, and one between Wales and North Macedonia in the semifinals.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.
📸 Mattia Ozbot – 2025 Getty Images
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