Most people think that anyone who first states a price in a negotiation is dealing themselves a losing hand. But sophisticated negotiators will tell you the opposite is usually true.
Whoever gets to speak first gets to “anchor” the price, to set the context for all future negotiations, which then are forced to use that as a base. Even if it is unreasonable, it enters an adversary’s brain.
This can also be true in more important matters than buying a new car, such as peace in the Middle East.
If you read Monday’s media coverage of the return of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza to their deeply relieved families and the return of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, you no doubt read one caveat after another about the future.
The New York Times was typical. “Israel and Hamas have not agreed to the next steps in Gaza,” was right there in a headline, just below President Donald Trump declaring a “historic dawn.” And, just below that, “there remain many unanswered questions about whether Israel and Hamas can reach a lasting peace.”
This is, of course, true. We don’t know what will happen next. The history of such moments like the extraordinarily good one that occurred Monday teaches us that people living through them generally do not know what the future will bring.
Israelis gathered at what has become known as Hostages Square celebrate as they watch a live broadcast of the release of hostages that were held by Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (David Guttenfelder/The New York Times)
President Donald Trump talks with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, Oct. 13, 2025, in Jerusalem. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty)
Evyatar David, center, a hostage released from the Gaza Strip, sits in a van with his family at Rabin Medical Center in Petah Tikva, Israel, on Oct. 13, 2025. The 20 living hostages in Gaza were returned to Israel on Monday and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners were freed from Israeli jails as part of a ceasefire that President Donald Trump hailed as “the end of the war” in an address to cheering members of Israel’s parliament. (Amit Elkayam/The New York Times)
A cheering throng greets Palestinian prisoners released by Israel as they arrive at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, on Oct. 13, 2025. On Monday afternoon, the Israeli prison service said it had freed all of the 1,968 Palestinian prisoners slated for release in an exchange for all remaining hostages in Gaza. (Saher Alghorra/The New York Times)
Palestinian prisoners released by Israel wave from a bus as they arrive at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, Oct. 13, 2025. (Saher Alghorra/The New York Times)
People react as they watch a live broadcast of Israeli hostages released from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Oded Balilty/AP)
Ziv Berman, an Israeli hostage released from the Gaza Strip, gestures from the window of a helicopter landing at the Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Leo Correa/AP)
Palestinians celebrate as released Palestinian prisoners arrive after an exchange with Israel in Ramallah in the West Bank, on Oct. 13, 2025. (Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times)
People gather to greet freed Palestinian prisoners arriving on buses in the Gaza Strip after their release from Israeli jails under a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Abdel Kareem Hana/AP)
People react as they watch a live broadcast of hostages being released by Hamas at the plaza that has become known Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Oct. 13, 2025. The plaza has been a focal point for rallies for the release of the hostages and a gathering place for their families and supporters during two years of war. (David Guttenfelder/The New York Times)
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, left, and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, clasp hands as they were acknowledged during President Donald Trump’s speech to the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on Oct. 13, 2025. Hamas freed the 20 hostages and Israel released some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners as part of a ceasefire. President Trump, in Israel, proclaimed an “end” to the war, but Israel and Hamas have not agreed on next steps in Gaza. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)
Ayman Odeh, a member of the Israeli Knesset, holds a sign reading “Recognize Palestine” as President Donald Trump delivers remarks before the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on Oct. 13, 2025. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)
People greet freed Palestinian prisoners arriving on buses in the Gaza Strip after their release from Israeli jails under a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Abdel Kareem Hana/AP)
David and Ariel Cunio, Israeli hostages released from the Gaza Strip ride on a minibus at the Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Leo Correa/AP)
A Palestinian prisoner makes the victory sign after being released from an Israeli prison as part of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, upon his arrival in the West Bank city of Ramallah, Oct. 13, 2025. (Majdi Mohammed/AP)
A Jewish man wears a kippah printed with the image of U.S. President Donald Trump during a gathering at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025, before the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza. (Oded Balilty/AP)
People react as they gather to watch a live broadcast of Israeli hostages released from Gaza at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. The release took place as part of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. (Oded Balilty/AP)
People react as they gather to watch a live broadcast of Israeli hostages released from Gaza at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. The release took place as part of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. (Oded Balilty/AP)
People watch a military helicopter carrying Israeli freed hostages as it arrives at Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva, Israel, after they were released from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Francisco Seco/AP)
Palestinian prisoners are greeted after being released from Israeli prison following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, Oct. 13, 2025. (Mahmoud Illean/AP)
Palestinians celebrate as buses of released Palestinian prisoners arrive after an exchange with Israel in Ramallah in the West Bank, on Oct. 13, 2025. President Donald Trump received applause and cheers on Monday in Israel’s parliament, where he celebrated an initial ceasefire deal in Gaza that he proclaimed was “the end of a war,” despite lingering questions over whether Israel and Hamas can reach a lasting peace. (Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times)
Ziv Berman, an Israeli hostage released from the Gaza Strip gestures from a minibus at the Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Leo Correa/AP)
Nimrod Cohen, an Israeli hostage released from the Gaza Strip, holds an Israeli flag after coming off a helicopter at the Ichilov Hospital, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Ohad Zwigenberg/AP)
Freed Israeli hostage Avinatan Or gestures from a van as he arrives at Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva, Israel, after he was released from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Ariel Schalit/AP)
Freed Israeli hostage Evyatar David gestures from a van as he arrives at Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva, Israel, after he was released from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Francisco Seco/AP)
People gather to greet freed Palestinian prisoners arriving on buses in the Gaza Strip after their release from Israeli jails under a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, outside Nasser Hospital, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Jehad Alshrafi/AP)
U.S. President Donald Trump poses with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ben Gurion International Airport before boarding his plane to Sharm El-Sheikh, on Oct. 13, 2025 in Tel Aviv, Israel. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty)
Matan Angrest, an Israeli hostage released from the Gaza Strip, puts his hands on his face after coming off a helicopter at the Ichilov Hospital, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Ohad Zwigenberg/AP)
People gather prior to the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza, at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)
People greet freed Palestinian prisoners arriving on buses in the Gaza Strip after their release from Israeli jails under a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Abdel Kareem Hana/AP)
Freed Israeli hostage Alon Ohel gestures from a van as he arrives at Beilinson Hospital in Petah Tikva, Israel, after he was released from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, Oct. 13, 2025. (Ariel Schalit/AP)
People react in anticipation of the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza during a gathering at a plaza known as Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (Oded Balilty/AP)
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Israelis gathered at what has become known as Hostages Square celebrate as they watch a live broadcast of the release of hostages that were held by Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. (David Guttenfelder/The New York Times)
We don’t know if peace will last between Israel and Hamas just as we don’t know if war will break out elsewhere and that’s without even getting into the semantic question of what constitutes war or peace. Journalists are doing their job when they roll out the caveats.
But Trump still was smart to say, “The war is over.” He said to the Knesset Monday, this is “not only the end of a war, this is the end of the age of terror and death.”
He had begun on the plane over from Washington, D.C.: “The war is over, you understand that,” he told reporters onboard Air Force One. And when he was asked about what will happen in the region, he said, “I think it’s going to normalize.“
You can see all of that as Trump, an infamous egotist, pumping up his own achievements and bridling at those cynics at the back of the plane. For sure.
But if the U.S. president says that the war is over, period, then he is also anchoring that notion within an otherwise muddled reality. Because the Middle East always has been muddled.
Stating something does not make it so. But it can help. (Just ask John Lennon and Yoko Ono).
So, we’ll take the cue.
The war, this war, is over.
The killing is over.
The bombing is over.
The terror is over.
The kidnapping is over.
The weeping is over.
The children being killed in the rubble in Gaza is over.
The insanity of all of it is over.
Or so we pray.
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