Assume the risk is the same for junior officers as for the troops they command. One captain = 110 man company, lieutenant = 30 man platoon. So the total number of KIA is 1081 captains x 110 = 118k or (1748+1485+605) lieutenants x 30 = 115k; the two numbers are very consistent with each other.
What’s the real relative risk for an officer vs the regular troops? On the one hand officers are higher value targets. On the other hand they definitely don’t lead from the front, especially nowadays. I think it is very reasonable to think that *overall* the risk for junior officers is 1/2 to 1/3 of the risk for regular troops. This would correspond to an absolutely stunning 230k to 345k range of total KIA (just KIA, not casualties)
That makes the Ukrainian (and UK) claim of 1.1 million Russian casualties very plausible, and possibly a bit low
Is not British but Ukrainian intel (“according to Ukrainian General staff”). One should give credit to original source
The US lost something like 50k troops total in the entire Vietnam war. How the hell do you hit 1.1 million casualties??
How do the good guys let the Russian people KNOW this?
That hit to demographics has to be catastrophic. A lot of those small towns in east russia are gonna be ghost towns in a few decades
I wonder if Putin even remembers why he started this bullshit war?
9 comments
Good.
That is nothing…
Got to bump up those numbers…let’s aim for 2.5 by this time next year
Sounds about right, also matches the Ukrainian count
One more supporting source: KIU recently posted a count of officers killed (with known names) [https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1nswbew/more_russian_officers_have_been_killed_in_ukraine/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1nswbew/more_russian_officers_have_been_killed_in_ukraine/)
Assume the risk is the same for junior officers as for the troops they command. One captain = 110 man company, lieutenant = 30 man platoon. So the total number of KIA is 1081 captains x 110 = 118k or (1748+1485+605) lieutenants x 30 = 115k; the two numbers are very consistent with each other.
What’s the real relative risk for an officer vs the regular troops? On the one hand officers are higher value targets. On the other hand they definitely don’t lead from the front, especially nowadays. I think it is very reasonable to think that *overall* the risk for junior officers is 1/2 to 1/3 of the risk for regular troops. This would correspond to an absolutely stunning 230k to 345k range of total KIA (just KIA, not casualties)
That makes the Ukrainian (and UK) claim of 1.1 million Russian casualties very plausible, and possibly a bit low
Is not British but Ukrainian intel (“according to Ukrainian General staff”). One should give credit to original source
The US lost something like 50k troops total in the entire Vietnam war. How the hell do you hit 1.1 million casualties??
How do the good guys let the Russian people KNOW this?
That hit to demographics has to be catastrophic. A lot of those small towns in east russia are gonna be ghost towns in a few decades
I wonder if Putin even remembers why he started this bullshit war?
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