The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has crowned September 2025 the strongest September since 2021. The comparison is technically correct, but the broader picture is less compelling. Measured across two decades of September data, this year’s performance belongs in the lower tier of outcomes. It represents improvement relative to the past three years, but not a return to historical strength.

The month also broke with seasonal tradition. Sales declined by 1.7 per cent from August to September, a reversal that is unusual for a period when activity typically accelerates. Major markets, including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal, all saw slower sales, with Toronto and Winnipeg as the exceptions. Rather than marking the beginning of renewed momentum, the September figures suggest a market struggling to generate even the modest lift that normally accompanies the fall season.

 

 

Supply, demand and the tilt toward buyers

 

What ultimately governs market direction is the relationship between supply and demand. While sales volumes were up 5.2 per cent from last year, listings increased at a faster clip. Active listings stood at nearly 200,000 properties in September, a 7.5 per cent rise year-over-year and roughly consistent with long-term averages. In contrast, sales remain well below those averages.

This divergence matters. A housing market bends toward whichever side expands more quickly. At present, listings are outpacing sales, forcing sellers to adjust downward to meet buyer bids. 

CREA’s sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 50.7 per cent, below the long-run mean of 54.9 per cent. Months of inventory sat at 4.4, slightly under the historical benchmark of five. According to traditional definitions, these readings still describe a balanced market. Yet these conventions are increasingly outdated in an era when technology accelerates transactions and shortens days on market. By older standards, the market appears stable. By contemporary dynamics, it leans distinctly toward buyers.

 

 

Prices flat, confidence fragile

 

On the surface, prices appear steady. The MLS Home Price Index was effectively unchanged in September, slipping just one-tenth of a percentage point from August. Year-over-year, the decline was 3.4 per cent. Such stability suggests the violent correction of 2022 and 2023 has given way to a slower grind. But stability in the numbers does not equal stability in sentiment.

 

 

 

The Canadian labour market has begun to fray. The closure of Stellantis operations in Brampton erased 3,000 jobs. Manufacturing layoffs ripple through Ontario. Unemployment rates are rising across most cities, with Alberta as a notable exception. GDP growth and job creation have been flattered by public sector hiring and fiscal spending, but households know that secure employment is what enables the confidence to purchase a home. Without conviction about income, families hesitate to assume long-term debt even if mortgage rates edge lower.

The fragility of confidence is why CREA’s invocation of “three years of pent-up demand” rings hollow. Demand is only meaningful if it is actionable. The desire to own does not translate into transactions when affordability remains out of reach. Wages must rise, rates must fall further, or prices must adjust downward before demand can be considered real.

 

The policy backdrop and political void

 

For years, population growth was the bedrock of housing demand. Immigration targets sustained a bullish narrative even when affordability eroded. That tailwind has now slackened. Political appetite for renewed acceleration in population growth is weak. Without it, a key pillar of long-term demand has been diminished. The looming renegotiation of CUSMA in 2026 adds further uncertainty to the outlook for demand, as the prospect of trade disruption clouds Canada’s broader economic trajectory.

Meanwhile, fiscal and monetary policy operate at cross purposes. Bond markets price the possibility of higher fixed rates toward the end of next year even as the Bank of Canada signals restraint. Government spending props up GDP in the short term, yet this masks structural vulnerabilities. Insolvencies and delinquencies are rising. The foundations of household balance sheets are deteriorating.

It is in this context that CREA’s optimism must be read. The association and its economists are correct that interest rates have normalized relative to the recent past. They are less convincing in suggesting that this will unleash latent demand. Recovery requires not only lower financing costs but also a sense that the broader economy is resilient enough to sustain households over the long term.

 

An extended holding pattern

 

Canada’s housing market now occupies an awkward middle ground. It is neither collapsing nor recovering. The correction phase has ended, but the renewal phase has yet to begin. Prices are flat, sales volumes are weak, and the balance of supply and demand tips gradually toward buyers. The system is stalled in place, waiting for either confidence or affordability to break the deadlock.

For policymakers, this limbo should be a warning. In the absence of robust wage growth, sustained employment, or structural improvements to housing supply, the market will not find a natural path back to equilibrium. For households, the message is equally stark. Stability is not the same as security. The risks of job loss, inflation and policy drift weigh heavily on decisions to buy or sell.

The September report is thus not the turning point CREA suggests. It is another entry in a long sequence of data that shows the same reality. Canada’s housing market is stuck. The question is not whether a boom or bust is imminent. It is whether we are prepared for the prolonged stasis that lies ahead.