Is Reform UK on course for the ‘biggest landslide’ in history? – Full Fact

https://fullfact.org/politics/reform-mrp-poll-results/

Posted by _FullFact

45 comments

  2. “The poll predicted that without tactical voting, Reform UK would win 445 seats if a general election was held now—this would be the most seats won by a single party in a straight contest since the franchise was extended in 1918.

    However the poll predicted that with tactical voting taken into account, the party would win 367 seats—still a sizable majority, but not near a record.”

  3. They’re biggest problem is that it’s the people who don’t usually vote who make up a lot of their support

  4. It’s definetly a good thing to point out the effects of tactical voting, because its very likely to be a major factor at the next election.

    That said, I’m sure it’s a complete pain to model, especially when the electoral landscape has changed so much, with mutliple far left parties also now looking like viable options compared to previous elections, not to mention the elephant in the room that is Reform.

    So actually, well done Full Fact for once.

    That said, it wouldn’t be a Full Fact article without throwing out some technicality that muddied the waters.

    >”Akshully, it wouldn’t be the biggest majority ever, because during the Great Depression The Tories, Labour and the Liberal Party ran on the same ticket and got even more seats.”

  5. Only if enough people are stupid enough to vote for the lying two faced cnut.

  7. Not a chance. If reform somehow rig the system or otherwise manipulate their way into power in this country, it’s going to be a bigger shit show than what’s happening in America.

    Fuck Farage and his fascist wanna be shill lackies.

    We already have a king thanks, and we quite like the NHS and our freedoms.

  8. Nah. It’s gonna be a mix of votes. I’m seeing an awkward collation. Don’t know who.

  10. Landslide no but 23% of the vote could get him in as PM. Let’s not be complacent. We have to fuck his chances as much as he will, or more, over the next 4 years.

  11. Because when your biggest pet project ends up causing 15 years of economic chaos of course you deserve to win an election.

  12. If it were to happen it would finally prove we are the stupidest country ever, given our previous stupidity over the brexit vote

  13. If the vote was today then maybe.

    But there’s another 4 years till the next election and labours reforms to rent and job security are finally actually getting though parliament, so I think they have time to turn it around if they try.

  14. Feel like many, including the current government need reminding that there will be nearly 4 years until a general election.

  15. Once people really see the results of what’s going on in the US they won’t stand a chance.

  16. Unbelievably it will only get worse for the incumbents. Higher energy costs, higher unemployment, high embedded inflation, per capita growth lowest in the G7, mass uncontrolled immigration, more unproductive quangos and regulation. None of the current policies will turn this around . It looks like an extinction event for the old parties. I think the only hope for them is a war with Russia followed by a government of national unity like WW2. In 3 years things may be so bad,and the level of dissatisfaction so high, that the voters will accept meaningful changes.

  17. It’s way too soon for such a ridiculous hyperbolic headline. Let’s talk in a couple of years

  18. I absolutely definitely will be tactical voting.  My vote will go to the candidate that has the best chance of keeping out this racist Trump wannabe.

  19. No, they will win but by a slim margin and mainly because the opposition will be split. They will find it hard to govern because that margin will evaporate rather quickly with the state of the useless people they put up for election

  20. I read “Daily Express” and instantly lost interest

  22. Farage in line for ‘Hero of the Soviet People’s’ medal and a place in Lenin’s mausoleum…🤫

  25. Praying Green do some heavy remodelling and become the people’s alternative (I’ve heard good things are happening over that way?) because it’s a grim potential future. Let Labour and tories fizzle out, they’ve beaten down the country enough, I wanna see new institutions with new ideas take a swing buuuut not reform.

    Somehow their voters have forgotten that he was one of the geniuses behind Brexit, did naff all with his seat in European Parliament and led UKIP. He has failed again and again and every year to me it’s just seemed like ‘what whacky scheme is that Nigel gonna play to keep himself relevant this year?’. He’s a political snake oil salesman.

  26. Both main party,s are so horrid that Reform winning might be the wake up call they need. But i do not think that Farrage can lead the country.

  27. It’s insane to me how many people trust him after he sold the country snake oil in Brexit.

  28. Four years is a long time, especially in politics. It’s quite likely that Farage has a hissy fit and stomped off sniffing out something more lucrative by then.

  29. Betrayed by the Tories, Betrayed by Labour, Third times the charm? I sincerely doubt it.

  30. We have 4 years before the election…. Reform are gonna screw up somewhere

  31. No. I have not see anything from Reform post immigration to say they know how to run a country. Kent, they needed to put up council tax instead of finding savings which was not there to begin with. Shambles

  32. Anyone who thinks Reform have no chance are probably the same people who thought Brexit would never happen

  34. It won’t be a record, just a comfortable victory.

    Well that’s ok then.

  35. Farage is the only reason people vote for Reform. They’re going to have to find a lot of credible candidates to get a majority.

  36. The election is in 2029, anything could have happened by then, also people will have seen how shit they are at running councils!

  37. They’ll clean up in small towns

    Further you are from an immigrant, the bigger the voter views their importance.

  38. Hopefully not, sadly they sound bite and people just believe their shit

  39. The MSM are certainly pushing hard for this to happen. Farage has been their poster boy since Brexit.

  41. > “biggest landslide in modern history” were a general election to be held now.

    Reform could easily implode before the next election, and if they don’t that’s when the real dirt on them will be shown.

  42. There’s 4 years until an election and the greens have time to catch up

  43. 3 years is a long time, hopefully before then we will discover the full extent of Farages Russian connections and he’ll be either sent to prison for treason or black bagged by his current supporters after they find out he was the enemy all along.

  44. 1) Flood people with far-right propaganda for a decade
    2) Fix the election so the outcome reflects the propaganda
    3) Society blames each other for “falling for the propaganda” while everything turns to complete shit
    4) Job done

  45. Didn’t realise there was a general election coming up soon. They’re polling well but that’s all you can say for now.

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