The Novato Unified School District could lose up to 150 students because of immigration threats, jeopardizing the stability of its $130 million budget.

Although the projection is based on attendance records, Joshua Braff, the district’s chief financial officer, raised the alarm at a budget update before the board of trustees on Tuesday.

If confirmed, it could mean Marin’s largest school district would see an enrollment drop from 7,300 to 7,150. Each student represents a loss of about $11,926 in per-student state subsidies, which are based on average daily attendance.

Braff said if the projection is confirmed, the district would lose $1,788,869 in funding caused by the drop in average daily attendance. He noted that families also leave for other reasons beyond immigration issues.

Braff also listed several other pressures, including an $11 million deficit and a warning from the Marin County Office of Education to correct the imbalance because deficit spending was draining the budget’s ending fund balance, known as the reserves. The district is under watch by the Marin County Office of Education to find a path out of deficit spending.

Also, the district’s $251 annual parcel tax, among the lowest in Marin, needs attention, Braff said. The tax was adopted July 2023 with an eight-year term.

Trustee Greg Mack said he was “tired of seeing” the district without a fair parcel tax.

“I think it’s absolutely ridiculous that the largest school district in this county has a parcel tax that is less than half of the next closest district,” Mack said. “I challenge anyone to tell me why this district is so less deserving of the parcel tax, relative to the rest of Marin districts.”

Mack added that parcel taxes are directly related to property values. “If you want the property values to stay up, put some money in,” he said.

In other areas, the district has the same funding cuts as experienced by schools statewide: an approximately 1% cost-of-living increase, down from about 8% two years ago. The cost-of-living adjustment is what gets added to the per-student state subsidy. Deep cuts to federal funding for mental health programs and other areas also are projected.

The district will launch a community outreach campaign in the coming weeks, which will include a “road trip” by Braff to area groups, school districts and other agencies or clubs. The budget update on Tuesday will be highlighted in social media posts, Superintendent Tracy Smith said.

The district will schedule an earlier meeting of its budget advisory committee, Braff said. More information will be posted at nusd.org.