Crude oil prices were down for a third week in a row. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($61.30/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹5,037/barrel) lost 2.3 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively.
Brent futures ($61.30)
Brent crude oil futures slipped for the third consecutive week, indicating a strong downward momentum. There are no decisive signs of a bullish reversal in trend now. Also, the nearest notable support from the current level can be spotted at $59.
Hence, the probability for a fall to $59 from the current level of $61.30 is high. A rebound from $59 can lift the contract to $63. Whereas if $59 is breached, it will open the door for a decline to $53.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,037)
Crude oil futures (Nov) dropped to mark a low of ₹4,962 before reclaiming the key ₹5,000-mark.
However, the chart shows that the sell trend is strong and there are no patterns indicating a bullish reversal in trend. The chart of Brent crude oil futures hints at further decline. If that happens, it can weigh on the domestic crude oil futures too.
So, going ahead, we might see crude oil futures (Nov) rising to ₹5,200-5,250 price band. But after this, the contract might resume the downtrend and fall to ₹4,750.
That said, if the resistance at ₹5,250 is breached, it can push the contract higher to ₹5,400. But as it stands, the probability for this uptick is low.
Trade strategy: Short crude oil futures (Nov) at ₹5,200. Target and stop-loss can be ₹4,800 and ₹5,320 respectively.
Published on October 18, 2025