Oracle hosted its Financial Analyst Day and AI World event, unveiling ambitious revenue and profit targets for fiscal 2030 focused on AI-driven cloud infrastructure growth and announcing partnerships with Meta, AMD, and IBM, alongside an expanded suite of AI-powered enterprise products and services.
While the company emphasized extensive AI infrastructure deals and showcased growth in its remaining performance obligations well above US$500 billion, the updates also brought to light investor concerns about the scale of Oracle’s future commitments, near-term profitability, and operational execution risks tied to heavy capital investments.
We will look at how Oracle’s aggressive long-term targets and commitment to large-scale AI deals could influence its investment narrative.
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To own Oracle stock today, investors must have conviction in the company’s ability to convert a record backlog of large AI infrastructure and cloud contracts into sustained revenue and profit growth, despite heavy up-front capital spending and intense competition from hyperscalers. The recent Financial Analyst Day highlighted even loftier long-term AI-driven targets, but the news also reinforced the most pressing short-term catalyst, ramping execution on multi-billion-dollar AI deals, while keeping the spotlight on operational risks stemming from Oracle’s aggressive capacity expansion. Among Oracle’s many announcements, the launch of OCI A4 compute shapes powered by AmpereOne M stands out for its direct tie to AI demand, providing customers with enhanced, cost-efficient inference performance. This rollout is particularly significant in the context of Oracle’s near-term efforts to deliver on its massive AI infrastructure commitments, as success here is crucial for monetizing its rapidly growing performance obligations. Yet, in contrast, with CapEx running at unprecedented levels and free cash flow still negative, investors should be aware that…
Read the full narrative on Oracle (it’s free!)
Oracle’s outlook anticipates $99.5 billion in revenue and $25.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes annual revenue growth of 20.1% and a $12.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $12.4 billion level.
Uncover how Oracle’s forecasts yield a $344.07 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.
ORCL Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
The Simply Wall St Community’s 25 fair value targets for Oracle range from US$166.28 to US$344.07 per share. With so much riding on execution speed for multi-billion-dollar AI deals, it is clear that market participants do not all agree on where Oracle’s momentum or risks will lead, be sure to explore multiple viewpoints before forming your own outlook.