Here’s how it plays out: shipping companies raise freight rates to cover the new fees. Exporters, in turn, lower the price they pay for cherries, pears, wheat, and other crops to make up the difference. Farmers can’t simply raise prices — the global market sets that. If we try, buyers just turn to Brazil, Argentina, or Europe.
That’s how a tariff becomes a boomerang. The target is overseas, but the blow lands on American soil.
We’ve seen this before. During the 2018–2020 trade war, China retaliated against U.S. farm exports. Overnight, American soybeans, cherries, and pork lost their biggest markets. Prices collapsed, farms struggled, and Washington sent out $28 billion in emergency “relief payments.” But let’s be honest — that wasn’t compensation. It was triage. Farmers paid once through lost income, and again as taxpayers funding the bailout.