This week centres on China’s economic trajectory and critical inflation data that will shape monetary policy expectations across major economies, alongside pivotal corporate earnings from technology sector leaders.
China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data headlines Monday’s releases, with markets anticipating growth of 4.8% YoY – marking a deceleration from the second quarter’s 5.2% expansion. The previous two quarters exceeded Beijing’s 5% annual growth target, but mounting deflationary pressures and subdued consumer confidence suggest momentum is fading in the latter half of 2025. Accompanying industrial production and retail sales figures will provide essential insights into the strength of manufacturing activity and household spending patterns. Should GDP undershoot the 4.8% consensus, it would intensify pressure on policymakers to deploy additional stimulus measures.
The Communist Party’s Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee convenes Monday, where senior personnel changes will be announced and the next five-year plan establishing China’s social and development priorities for 2026-2030 will be deliberated. The gathering assumes particular significance given unsettling US trade tensions and persistent structural domestic headwinds. Any signals regarding strategic priorities – particularly around technology self-sufficiency, domestic consumption stimulus, or demographic challenges – would prove consequential for markets assessing China’s long-term growth trajectory.
Japan faces political uncertainty as the Diet’s extraordinary session Tuesday may determine the country’s next prime minister following recent coalition dynamics. Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanae Takaichi could become Japan’s first female prime minister if she secures sufficient support beyond the LDP and its newly formed alliance with Ishin, requiring at least two additional votes in the Lower House to command a majority.
US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released on Friday after being delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, just in time for the Federal Reserve‘s assessment before its policy meeting on 28-29 October. Markets project core CPI will maintain its 3.1% YoY pace, while headline inflation rate is expected to accelerate from 2.9% to 3.1% YoY. Should inflation exceed expectations, markets may recalibrate rate cut probabilities for the remainder of 2025. Currently, the market is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut in October.
Flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings across major economies Friday will offer preliminary assessments of October business activity.
Corporate earnings attention focuses on Netflix and Tesla reporting Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Netflix’s content performance and advertising revenue trajectory will indicate subscription economy health, whilst Tesla’s results will provide crucial perspectives on electric vehicle demand dynamics and the company’s ability to maintain margins amid intensifying competition.
Figure 4: China’s retail sales, industrial production and property sales all point to a slower GDP growth in Q3