President Trump has been threatening tariffs on India unless it stops buying Russian crude and the European Union has been preparing to cut off all gas imports into the bloc within two years—even against member states’ wishes. Yet the latest data shows that Russia is still exporting a lot of oil and gas—including to the EU.

Last month, China remained the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil, even as the U.S. president says that once he deals with India on that matter, he would turn to China. According to customs data cited by the South China Morning Post, China’s oil imports from Russia jumped by 4.3% on the month in September, to a total 8.29 million tons, representing 17.5% of total oil imports. On an annual basis, however, imports from Russia fell by the same percentage.

“The increased Russian oil purchases may be China’s act of defiance ahead of further talks with the US,” Xu Tianchen, senior economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the SCMP in comments on the news. “I can’t see why China would give up Russian oil unless, for example, Trump is willing to remove all its tariffs on China and lift sanctions on Chinese companies.”

Related: China’s Crude Oil Stockpiling Baffles Markets

China does indeed not have much motivation to stop importing energy—or anything else for that matter—from Russia. It is not part of the G7 group that has tried repeatedly to decimate Russian export revenues, specifically in energy, and it shares a pragmatic approach to energy security with its neighbor India, which analysts still say will eventually bow to the Western pressure to curb Russian imports, per a new Reuters report. The analysts add that this would simply free up more discounted Russian barrels for China.

The topic of whether India will stop buying Russian crude to make President Trump happy and seal a trade deal, ridding it of import tariffs for the United States, has been hot this month. The U.S. president has demonstrated confidence that things would go his way, claiming Prime Minister Modi had essentially made a promise to that effect. Official Indian government sources have stated there have been no such promises and some analysts have noted that Indian buyers cannot simply stop buying Russian crude, which has come to account for over a third of India’s total crude oil imports.

As such, India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China, just like it is the second-largest buyer of Russian coal, per the latest monthly data from a Finland-based outlet called Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air that tracks Russian energy shipments abroad. According to CREA, in financial terms, Russia’s revenues from energy exports has more or less halved since 2022—but volumes keep strong, including to the European Union.

The European Union is currently devising plans to ban all Russian natural gas imports from 2027, officials in Brussels believe it is possible, even though at least two member states—Hungary and Slovakia—do not agree with the ban and critics point to the price differential that has kept Russian gas flowing into the EU, including as liquefied gas.

In fact, per CREA figures, the European Union was the largest buyer of Russian LNG in September, with China the second-largest, followed by Japan, which has been under pressure itself from the U.S. to stop buying Russian energy commodities. The problem is that it cannot afford to—just like the EU.

Meanwhile, traders and analysts said this week that China and India will import more Russian energy commodities this month, as international prices dip and the discounts for Russian oil deepen. November is also likely to see strong imports, according to Kpler analysts, and only in December could the effects of the latest sanction push make an appearance—or not, because a good deal is a good deal and energy security matters.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com: