With the postwar order changing fast, Canada’s agri-food future depends on whether it can adapt faster than its allies — or be left behind.

The message is blunt:  the post-Second World War rules-based order isn’t just fraying — it’s finished. For Canada’s seed and agri-food sectors, the question isn’t whether this country can lead globally. It’s whether it can even keep up.

“We’re trying to catch up to where the prime minister is already running,” says Tyler McCann, managing director of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute. “What would’ve seemed transformational a year ago is now table stakes.”

The backdrop is unforgiving. At home, the Liberal government under Mark Carney has promised sweeping reforms, starting with demands for every ministry to slash budgets by up to 15%. Abroad, the U.S. political climate threatens to upend hard-won trade agreements.

Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA), doesn’t sugarcoat it. “The level of political risk in your work is fundamentally higher now. We’ve entered a new world.”

For Canadian agriculture — especially seed — that “new world” is defined by two pressures: austerity in Ottawa and instability in the U.S.

Karis Gutter has seen this before. A former United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) official now leading government affairs for Corteva Agriscience in Washington, D.C., he describes the U.S. system as one increasingly “hijacked by attention economics.”

“This isn’t about stakeholder engagement anymore,” Gutter says. “It’s about polling, perception, and attention. Executive orders are replacing debate.”

The old playbook of quiet lobbying, stakeholder consensus, and predictable timelines doesn’t work anymore. “We’re playing catch-up,” he adds. “You can’t just show up with policy briefs. You need visuals, you need messengers, you need to speak the political vernacular of the day.”

From left: Tyler McCann, Michael Harvey and Karis Gutter.

CUSMA on the Edge

That reality collides directly with Canada’s most important trade file: the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). The review is already underway, after the U.S. administration said a bigger deal wouldn’t be forthcoming. Unofficially, CUSMA has already been tested for months by unilateral tariffs and election-year rhetoric.

McCann is pragmatic. “If we aren’t ready, we could lose more than just preferential access — we could lose our place.”

Harvey, a veteran diplomat, underlines the point. “We’re next to the world’s largest market. That’s not something you pivot away from just because the president sends you a rude letter.”

Beyond trade lies a deeper reckoning: does Canada even have a vision for agriculture?

“We’re farming fewer acres in Canada today than in the past 100 years,” McCann notes. “And we celebrate record export values while ignoring stagnating volumes. That’s not success — that’s inflation.”

In other words: Canada’s ag story isn’t about bumper crops; it’s about missed opportunities.

Meeting Government Where it is

So, what does courage look like in 2025? For Gutter, it means showing up prepared to speak the language of modern politics. Charts, infographics, plain language messengers. “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” he says.

McCann pushes the argument further. “We need to stop asking government to come meet us in agriculture. We need to meet government where it is — on AI, on digital, on climate. The prime minister recently named a minister for artificial intelligence. Why aren’t we in that conversation?”

This isn’t just about defending agriculture’s traditional space in the policy landscape. It’s about expanding into the spaces where future budgets, attention, and political capital will be spent.

A New Playbook for Trade and Regulation

That ambition needs to carry into the CUSMA review. Gutter sees an opportunity: push for stronger biotechnology provisions, smoother regulatory alignment, and more modern trade frameworks. But don’t rely on old strategies. “We can’t do it the way we used to,” he says. “We need a new playbook.”

At the same time, the regulatory system itself is facing seismic change. With Carney’s government demanding deep cuts across departments, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) is expected to refocus on its core mandate — which may not include legacy seed regulatory functions.

“This is going to hit agriculture,” McCann says flatly. “If we don’t step up with private-sector solutions, we’ll be stuck with public-sector retreats.”