All results and reaction to the Caerphilly by-election should go in this megathread please.
Result: Plaid Cymru win
Full counts:
Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats – 497
Anthony Cook – Gwlad – 117
Gareth Hughes – Green Party – 516
Gareth Potter – Welsh Conservatives – 690
Llyr Powell – Reform UK – 12,113
Roger Quilliam – UKIP – 79
Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour – 3,713
Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru – 15,961
2025 Caerphilly by-election – Wikipedia
Live coverage here:
by SteffS
40 comments
I am surprised turnout is this good
Fwiw Betfair exchange odds have gone hugely in favour of plaid
We don’t need Reform in Wales, I do hope Plaid win it.
Historic turnout. Caerphilly’s previous highest turnout was <45%, to beat that by 5% in a by-election is huge.
Reform have thrown the kitchen sink at this relatively unimportant by-election, i wonder how much money they’ve spent on it? Hugely embarrassing for them if they don’t win now.
Tom Scotson (Politics Home reporter) saying that Rhun ap Iorwerth is heading to the count. You’ve got to think that means Plaid think they’ve won it.
Lots of people reporting Plaid think they’ve squeezed out a win. Reform also looking a bit deflated. Betting markets swinging heavily towards Plaid.
Either Plaid has won or they’ve done the worst job at expectations management.
I’m hearing a lot of chatter that Plaid snatched a win, but I’m pretty anxious regardless. Hopefully it’s good news in the morning!
Results plural?
Christ, Reform or Plaid. On the one hand, if Wales becomes independent, there’s a decent chance I lose my job across the border, on the other… Reform… fuck my life. What are the odds Lib Dems or Greens swoop in and steal this (and then the next election)?
I’m not Welsh but I do live in Northern Ireland. It seems like Reform is having the same effect in Wales as it’s had in England which N. Ireland had in the 2000s. The SDLP (Irish Nationalist) and UUP (British Unionist) were the two biggest parties in N. Ireland and the main parties involved in the Good Friday Agreement and the Peace Process. But in the 2000s support waned as more people started turning to hardline parties. Now the most popular parties are Sinn Fein and DUP and there’s much more of a sense of “if you don’t vote for them the other will get in”.
Reform has clearly pushed a lot of people voting Labour towards the Greens because Labour is failing to fill as a response to Reform – and the more left wing Greens are filling that void.
And it seems Nationalism might get a rise in Wales if Reform really start getting a foothold there.
Curious. Both parties could suffer from vote splitting/tactical voting. Plaid could lose left wing voters to labour, lib dems or greens, while I’ve heard some tories have voted plaid to deny reform a victory. If plaid wins this I doubt they’ll hold on to it in May.
Rhun ap Iorwerth has arrived at the count!
This Bristolian is crossing fingers for Plaid
Wales Online reporting that Plaid is “confident” they’ve won. Very interesting times.
DECLARATION IMMINENT! The candidates have been told
VICTORY
And that’s it! Plaid Cymru wins. Historic.
Fuck yes, Plaid wins!
I am not Welsh, but rather Scottish, but it has brought me immense joy to see Wales stave off a Reform win. Well done Wales, and congratulations, Lindsay!
Well, that was close. Feels good that at least Wales has a shot at keeping Reform out. Now Plaid needs to prove they aren’t just Labour +
YES!!!!!!! What is that, 3000 votes difference between Plaid and Reform?
Go “home” to Clacton Farage!
COME ON CYMRU, UPPA PLAID
Votes from the BBC –
Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats – 497
Anthony Cook – Gwlad – 117
Gareth Hughes – Green Party – 516
Gareth Potter – Welsh Conservatives – 690
Llyr Powell – Reform UK – 12,113
Roger Quilliam – UKIP – 79
Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour – 3,713
Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru – 15,961
Surprisingly comfortable margin for Plaid, a shocker for Labour.
Christ, that’s not a close result at all. Plaid on 47%, Reform on 36%.
Just seen on BlueSky Plaid have won. Diolch byth!
Watching the live BBC feed, while Lindsay is being interviewed by the BBC you can see the rest of the media have swarmed to Llyr (even pointed out by the BBC interviewer). The BS has already started.
I’ll be honest, I was hoping for a Reform win, but as a Welshman, I am absolutely made up for Lindsay. He bleeds Y Ddraig Goch, and from what I know about him (I’m in Mid Wales), he has worked tirelessly for his community for decades, through challenging times, and many community and political issues.
14th time lucky for him, wholly due to his genuine love and passion for his community. Even if he loses his seat in May, at least he can hold his head up high, and finally say ‘I did it’.
Pob lwc Lindsay, da iawn ti.
Glad it wasn’t as close as media wanted it to be. Hope this translates nationally next may. Grifters hopefully told to GTFO
THANK GOD
Hope not hate won
I think this is massively indicative of how many people are sick of Reform rhetoric. We’ve been entirely misled by the media pushing their narrative over the last eight months, into believing that the Reform base is massive and has more power than it does.
Reform threw everything at this, I truly believe they were using this as an indication as to how successful they’ll be moving forward. I’ve always felt like Wales is a bit of a beachhead for Reform, and with the amount of work they did in Caerphilly they really wanted this win.
I’m actually feeling hopeful because I think this completely takes the wind out of their sails and proves to everyone that just because some people can shout loud, it doesn’t mean that there’s more of them.
Da iawn Caerphilly, let’s keep this energy up going into May.
Plaid Cymru’s win in Caerphilly shows how much Wales has changed. The new voting system lets non-UK residents vote and lowers the voting age to 16. If this were applied across the UK, the left would almost always win.
Good riddance to Hans Moleman’s love child.
Though this is still a worrying result for next year. Plaid always do fairly well in Caerphilly, there will be much sterner tests in areas like Merthyr and the Gwent valleys where they have a much lower presence.
Thank you Caerphilly.
Big night for the nationalists
Oh thank fuck. Well done Caerphilly. A rare bit of good news.
Not usually a plaid voter or supporter
But thank god reform lost
A heartening result. Well done, Caerphilly!
Amazing showing Plaid!!! Sad to see reform do so well but amazed to see Plaid do better!!!!
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