Stocks advance as UK retail sales rise for fourth consecutive month

Shares in Intel (INTC) recorded a per-share loss of 37 cents in the quarter, reflecting shares held in escrow that will be released to the US government as part of an $8.9bn investment. The Trump administration negotiated the deal in August, purchasing 433.3m shares at $20.47 each.

For the fourth quarter, Intel said it expects revenue of $13.3bn at the midpoint and adjusted earnings per share of 8 cents. Analysts had forecast $13.37bn in revenue and earnings of the same amount. The chipmaker noted that its guidance excludes the impact of its recent sale of the Altera subsidiary.

In the third quarter, Intel reported net income of $4.1bn, or 90 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $16.6bn in the same period last year. The company said it received $5.7bn from the US government during the quarter.

Intel said that demand for its chips outpaced supply, a trend it expects to continue into next year. The company’s products group reported $12.7bn in sales, a 3% year-on-year increase, while its foundry division generated $4.2bn in revenue, down 2% from the same quarter last year.

The chip giant added that the foundry’s revenue was entirely from Intel using the facilities to produce its own chips.

The cyber attack that shut down Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) factories has led to UK car production falling to a 73-year low last month.

According to new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), total vehicle production plunged 35.9% in September to 54,319.

Car production was down 27.1% to 51,090, thanks to JLR’s sites being brought to a standstill.

The SMMT said the “unprecedented cyber incident” was “largely responsible for the decline as other volume manufacturers reported growth”.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said: “September’s performance comes as no surprise given the total loss of production at Britain’s biggest automotive employer following a cyber incident.”

Criminals stole more than £629m through payment fraud and scams in the first half of 2025, according to new data from UK Finance, marking a 3% rise compared with the same period last year.

The trade association’s half-year fraud report shows that UK banks and other financial institutions recorded more than 2.09 million cases of fraud between January and June, a 17% year-on-year increase.

Lenders successfully prevented £870m of fraud through enhanced security systems, 20% more than in the first half of 2024. This equates to 70p in every £1 attempted.

Push payment fraud

Push payment (APP) fraud — in which victims are tricked into transferring money to criminals — originated online, accounting for 66% of cases, while 17% stemmed from telecommunications networks.

Jonathan Frost, global advisory director at BioCatch, highlighted the fact that UK banks prevented £870m worth of unauthorised fraud in the first half of 2025, equivalent to 70p out of every pound.

But he added: “Fraudsters continue to prove among the world’s greatest innovators, making away with more than £600m from UK consumers in just six months.

“The continued growth of authorised push payment fraud remains a major concern. Stopping APP fraud will require more than just technology. It necessitates both better and cross-industry collaboration. The UK market is primed for real-time intelligence-sharing and should embrace it to continue leading the global fight against fraud.”

Read the full article here

Gold funds received their largest weekly inflow on record in the week to Wednesday, according to the latest data from Bank of America Global Research.

Bullion prices hit a record high of $4,381.21 per ounce on Monday, more than 60% higher than at the start of this year, before paring back, and gold funds saw inflows of $8.7bn in the week BofA said. This puts the inflows over the last four months at $50bn.

Gold is currently trading around $4,070 per ounce, down 0.2% on the day at the time of writing, but analysts have said despite the short-term correction, structural demand from central banks, de-dollarisation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty will continue to push gold higher.

Russell Shor, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu, said:

Consumer confidence increased marginally in October as shoppers look to the Black Friday sales event – despite nervousness around the upcoming Budget, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased by two points – although it still languishes at minus 17.

The increase was largely driven by a four-point rise in the index’s major purchase marker, an indicator of confidence in buying big-ticket items, to minus 12 – a nine-point improvement on last October.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months also increased, by two points to minus 30, but marking a two-point decline on a year ago.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months fell one point to positive three – five points better than this time last year.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said:

NatWest (NWG.L) shares hit a 15-year high on Friday morning, after the bank topped expectations with 35% growth in profit in the third quarter and lifted its guidance for the year.

Shares popped 4% shortly after the market open in London on Friday, with the stock up 41% year-to-date.

The bank reported profit of £1.68bn for the third quarter, in results released on Friday, which was up 35% compared to the same period last year. This was also ahead of an expected £1.34bn, according to consensus estimates provided by the bank.

Net interest income – the difference between what the bank pays out to savers and receives from borrowers in interest – was up 12.7% year-on-year at £3.27bn, versus estimates of £3.21bn.

This contributed to a total income figure of £4.33bn, which was up 15.7% compared to the third quarter of last year.

This drove a 36% rise in profit attributable to shareholders to £1.6bn and a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 22.3%.

NatWest said it now expected to deliver income, excluding notable items, of around £16.3bn for the year, up from previous guidance of more than £16bn. The bank also expects RoTE of greater than 18%, versus a previous forecast of over 16.5%.

Here’s the top risers and fallers on the FTSE 100 this morning:

The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US greenback after Donald Trump commented on US-Canada trade talks overnight.

In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump accused Canada of fraudulently using a “FAKE” advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about tariffs, to sway a decision from America’s highest federal court on the legality of US levies on imports.

The Canadian currency dropped 0.2%, to 1.4018 to the US dollar.

Trump said:

UK retail sales volumes have risen for the fourth month in a row, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning. It revealed a 0.5% increase in sales volumes in September, and a 1.5% rise compared to the previous year. Economists had expected a 0.2% monthly drop.

The ONS reported that sales grew strongly at non-food stores, including computer and telecommunications retailers.

Tech sales were boosted over the summer by the launch of Nintendo’s long-awaited Switch 2 console and Apple’s iPhone 17, and within non-store retailing, online jewellers reported strong demand for gold as its price rose to record highs this year.

Overall, sales volumes hit to their highest level since 2022 in September, although they are still 1.6% below their levels in February 2020 before the first COVID-19 lockdown.

Meanwhile, the amount spent online between July and September was 3.5% higher than the previous quarter and 5% higher than the same period last year.

Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said:

Stocks in Asia advanced overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) rising 1.3% on the day in Japan, as core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.8% in Hong Kong.

The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.7% up by the end of the session as the CCP released more details on China’s new five-year economic plan focusing on advanced manufacturing, technological self-sufficiency, and enhanced domestic demand.

In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 2.5% on the day, posting a new intraday record.

Easing US-China fears supported an overall risk-on mood last night, and across the pond the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.9% higher. The Dow Jones (^DJI) also gained 0.3%.

It came as the White House said president Donald Trump will meet with China’s president Xi next Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC summit. This buoyed hopes of a détente between the world’s two largest economies.

It would be the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Trump returned to office in January, and comes as the current 90-day US-China tariff truce is due to expire on 1 November.

Meanwhile, there was negative news for Canada as Trump posted last night that “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED”, in an apparent response to an advertisement against tariffs funded by the government of Ontario.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and happening across the global economy.

To the day ahead now, we have data including the global October flash PMIs, US September CPI, final October University of Michigan survey, UK September retail sales and France October consumer confidence.

Central bank speakers include ECB’s Nagel, Cipollone and Villeroy. Notable earnings include Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, NatWest and Porsche. We also have Moody’s review of France’s credit rating.

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the agenda:

7am: Trading updates: NatWest

7am: Great Britain retail sales report

9am: Flash eurozone PMI report

9.30am: Flash UK PMI report

1.30pm: US inflation report for September

3pm: University of Michigan US consumer confidence report