>Dramatic scenes are currently unfolding on the border between Poland and Belarus. Thousands of migrants are pushing into Europe, chanting “German! German!” chanting. Apparently, they believe that if only they reached Germany, they would have made it and arrived in safety and prosperity. This is the result of false signals and failed policies that now threaten to lead to the second major EU migration crisis within a few years – this time externally driven. NATO is already talking about hybrid warfare.
Failed? Didn’t German Chancellor Angela Merkel just say in an interview with Deutsche Welle, “We’ve done it,” six years after her infamous phrase “We can do it”? That’s how many media outlets have quoted it. To be sure, Merkel reported some heartwarming stories, such as of girls who had fled to Germany and earned their high school diplomas. But she also states that the big picture has not succeeded: “We have not managed to ensure that Europe has a uniform asylum system, and smugglers still have the upper hand.” Legal channels of migration have not been properly regulated, he says, and the causes of flight have not been effectively combated.
If Germany has “managed” anything without any doubt, it is this: It sent the completely wrong signals to the world about immigration – signals that are still having an effect today and are partly responsible for the dramatic situation on the Polish border. The Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko may be fueling migration – but the exaggerated and erroneous expectations migrants have of Germany have been aroused by the German government.
The fact that migration pressure toward Germany is also catching the country in a period of power transition further complicates the situation. In its old age, Merkel’s caretaker government is unlikely to adopt the realpolitik course on immigration that it has shied away from since 2015.
The next government must pursue realpolitik
And the next federal government? If it becomes a traffic light coalition, one can only hope that the SPD and the Greens in particular will make their moral ideals compatible with political reality. There will be migration as long as people imagine that they can live better somewhere else than at home. In other words, always. And young men are almost always sent first, who then often try to catch up with the rest of the family. Rules have to be found for this reality. So far, experience teaches that once someone makes it to Germany, he stays. However, a functioning national welfare state and uncontrolled immigration are mutually exclusive. With regard to the integration of 1.4 million newcomers in Germany since 2015, many things have just not been accomplished. This is shown, among other things, by the crime figures and the rise in Islamist threat potential.
If migrants have so far been able to point Europe’s signals in the direction of “no borders,” then the community of states can and should now send the opposite signals: Don’t come! Or rather: Come, if, then only through regular channels.
Regularly? At this point it becomes painfully obvious that Germany still does not have a proper immigration law. Merkel’s presumptive successor, Olaf Scholz, must break away from her hitherto merely reactive policy and show leadership. The sooner that happens, the better. The current German power vacuum is playing into the hands of Lukashenko and Putin.
A new message: Stay at home!
What should have happened before? The Poles are securing their external border, which is also that of the EU, on their own until now. Germany could also offer bilateral help here: with police officers, material – whatever Warsaw demands. The German embassies should also spread an appeal with a large-scale campaign in the countries from which the migrants are making their way to Belarus: Stay at home!
*** Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***
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>Dramatic scenes are currently unfolding on the border between Poland and Belarus. Thousands of migrants are pushing into Europe, chanting “German! German!” chanting. Apparently, they believe that if only they reached Germany, they would have made it and arrived in safety and prosperity. This is the result of false signals and failed policies that now threaten to lead to the second major EU migration crisis within a few years – this time externally driven. NATO is already talking about hybrid warfare.
Failed? Didn’t German Chancellor Angela Merkel just say in an interview with Deutsche Welle, “We’ve done it,” six years after her infamous phrase “We can do it”? That’s how many media outlets have quoted it. To be sure, Merkel reported some heartwarming stories, such as of girls who had fled to Germany and earned their high school diplomas. But she also states that the big picture has not succeeded: “We have not managed to ensure that Europe has a uniform asylum system, and smugglers still have the upper hand.” Legal channels of migration have not been properly regulated, he says, and the causes of flight have not been effectively combated.
If Germany has “managed” anything without any doubt, it is this: It sent the completely wrong signals to the world about immigration – signals that are still having an effect today and are partly responsible for the dramatic situation on the Polish border. The Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko may be fueling migration – but the exaggerated and erroneous expectations migrants have of Germany have been aroused by the German government.
The fact that migration pressure toward Germany is also catching the country in a period of power transition further complicates the situation. In its old age, Merkel’s caretaker government is unlikely to adopt the realpolitik course on immigration that it has shied away from since 2015.
The next government must pursue realpolitik
And the next federal government? If it becomes a traffic light coalition, one can only hope that the SPD and the Greens in particular will make their moral ideals compatible with political reality. There will be migration as long as people imagine that they can live better somewhere else than at home. In other words, always. And young men are almost always sent first, who then often try to catch up with the rest of the family. Rules have to be found for this reality. So far, experience teaches that once someone makes it to Germany, he stays. However, a functioning national welfare state and uncontrolled immigration are mutually exclusive. With regard to the integration of 1.4 million newcomers in Germany since 2015, many things have just not been accomplished. This is shown, among other things, by the crime figures and the rise in Islamist threat potential.
If migrants have so far been able to point Europe’s signals in the direction of “no borders,” then the community of states can and should now send the opposite signals: Don’t come! Or rather: Come, if, then only through regular channels.
Regularly? At this point it becomes painfully obvious that Germany still does not have a proper immigration law. Merkel’s presumptive successor, Olaf Scholz, must break away from her hitherto merely reactive policy and show leadership. The sooner that happens, the better. The current German power vacuum is playing into the hands of Lukashenko and Putin.
A new message: Stay at home!
What should have happened before? The Poles are securing their external border, which is also that of the EU, on their own until now. Germany could also offer bilateral help here: with police officers, material – whatever Warsaw demands. The German embassies should also spread an appeal with a large-scale campaign in the countries from which the migrants are making their way to Belarus: Stay at home!
*** Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***