Six months after US President Donald Trump launched an
aggressive trade war, the global economy has shown unexpected
resilience, Azernews reports via the Economist
reports. Despite rising tensions between the US and China, fears of
a sharp economic downturn have not materialized, and many economic
indicators remain positive.

After a spring slowdown, Goldman Sachs’ Current Activity Index
shows that global growth continues at pre-trade-war levels, while
JPMorgan’s global PMI reached a 14-month high in August. According
to the Atlanta Federal Reserve, US GDP grew at an annualized rate
of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2025, although a slowdown is
expected in the fourth quarter. Only Finland among OECD countries
is currently in recession, down from eight at the start of 2023,
and the global growth forecast for 2025 has risen from 2.2% to
2.6%.

One factor behind this resilience is that Trump’s tariffs have
been less severe than expected. While initial plans suggested an
effective import tax of 28%, the current average stands at around
10%. At the same time, expansionary fiscal policies in the US
continue to support domestic demand, sustaining market
confidence.

Corporate earnings are also robust. Global corporate profits
rose 7% year-on-year in Q2, and the MSCI ACWI stock index reached
an all-time high. Cycle-oriented sectors like autos and
construction equipment are outperforming, reflecting broader
economic momentum.

Concerns that economic growth is overly dependent on artificial
intelligence (AI) are largely overblown. While AI-related
investments have contributed to growth in the US, much of this is
tied to general information processing equipment and software, not
AI specifically. Outside the US, IT has not emerged as a major
growth driver.

The labor market remains stable. In the US, employment growth
has slowed somewhat, but no significant change has been observed
since the launch of ChatGPT. Elsewhere in the OECD, 37 countries
added 3 million jobs in the first half of the year, consistent with
pre-pandemic norms.

Consumer confidence, however, remains subdued. In the US, it has
rebounded somewhat but is still below pre-pandemic levels. High
global uncertainty and frequent searches for “tariffs” suggest
ongoing public concern. Some experts warn that stock market
volatility linked to AI could further depress sentiment.

Despite these uncertainties, six months after the trade war
escalation, the global economy continues to demonstrate strong
resilience, defying initial expectations of a crisis.