Bulgarian general elections

18 comments

1. Bulgaria seems to have reached a stalemate.

   There is a ~40% wanting change and voting for ITN, DB, Stand Up and now PP.

   There is a steady 20-25% for GERB + 10% for the Turkish party.

   And the 12-17% for BSP.

   The only way forward would be if some of the old (+Turkish and Roma) voters switched form the old parties to the new ones.

2. What are the stances of PP (We Continue the Change) on traditionally divisive social issues? Could it be described as progressive/how much? What issues / talking points do the other parties use against PP?

3. Which electorate is the most resilient so to say to multiple elections? If Bulgaria works similar to Romania, I expect some drop in attendance.

4. Do people of Bulgaria expect resolve from these elections?

5. Remember when Bulgarians tried to convince us that Bulgaria was as corrupt and broken as Belarus? What a joke. Sure, there’s corruption, but you’re an EU country. No fixed elections.

6. This is starting to get stupid. Have the parties announced post-election plans to avoid another hung parliament and a fourth election?

7. “We continue the change” is also populist

   and BSP is just left, not centre-left

8. Mind this is my personal opinion but there is absolutely no reason to label the parties as left/right/center. Here we have corruption problem, before that’s fixed there is absolutely no point to discuss what fiscal policy the government would strife for and so on.

   We have reached a breaking point and a stalemate:

   People are really tired of the ruling trio GERB, DPS, BSP and what change, especially young people.

   * The change parties got 45-48% last 2 elections and can’t form a majority. Those are ITN, DB, Stand Up and now PP.
   * GERB + DPS get around 25% + 10%, those are the establishment parties which rely on power, bough votes and turkish votes, so they have steady votes coming in.
   * BSP – the remnants of the communist party, they get less and less as its most old people voting for them, who remember good times, mostly because they were younger, not because they were so much better off ( Some of them were )

   *My party evaluation is based on corruption index as it’s what matter imho and not ot right,left or center. We have to deal with corruption first.*

   **GERB – Corruption rating 10/10**

   They get their votes by an even split of:

   * 25% Administration. People in rural areas, are afraid that if the ruling party changes, they will be out of jobs. So they are being leveraged easily.
   * 25% Business that relies on government contracts. Employees are told vote GERB or the company might not get work.
   * 25% Gypsy/Organized paid vote. Again mostly rural areas.
   * 25% Actual voters.

   As the status quo they will continue to get those votes, also they are quite convenient for EU leaders, as they are easily controllable by money and special interests. If Merkel and Macron said jump or duck Borisov would do it instantly. Everyone who joins this party is really looking to cash in as they don’t stand by nothing other than that.

   **DPS – Corruption rating 11/10**

   Yes I broke the scale, It’s the “turkish minority party” but not really. The party was founded by the secret service to give ethnic minorities a center of power and yo prevent turkish influence. All the higher ups were picked by or part of the communist agentura.

   Some time ago Turkey tried to create it’s own proxy party called DOST to compete with them and failed.

   DPS have their own center of power in Bulgaria and being dependent or connected to Turkey can only hurt them. Even if you disregard the historical context they can only lose by looking to Ankara.

   They are also the party of Dogan and Peevski, **they control the courts, special agencies within the government and our anti-corruption and anti-organized crime agency. Oh and they also own 80% of the Media.**

   **We Continue the Change – Corruption rating 2/10**

   They are financed by the Americans, thus the 2/10 corruption rating. Other than that, it’s the party of 2 of the really well liked care taker ministers which have gained quite a lot of public support as they are charismatic, seem to care about corruption schemes and brought a lot of stuff into the light for the few months they were ministers. If there is a government it will be formed under their mandate, 95%.

   **BSP – Corruption rating 8/10.**

   Remnants of the old communist party, only old people vote for them. They are career politicians and only care for being in power, thus the 8/10. ITN and DB don’t want to form coalition with them, thus if the parties of so called “change” don’t get over 50% they are the only option of forming a goverment, but it will be under We Continue the Change mandate so ITN and DB can say they aren’t grouping with the ex commies.

   **Democratic Bulgaria – Corruption rating 3/10.**

   A Coalition of Yes, Bulgaria, The greens and old reformist block remnants. Im giving them 3/10 , 2 because of the American financing ( same as We Continue The Change, one of the ministers/leaders was also a founding member of Yes, Bulgaria ). 1 because the reformist block remnants has some serious old career politicians that nobody likes, but they bring votes and Yes, Bulgaria made a coalition with them a few years back so they can pass the 4% threshold. Imho the reformist block is only hurting them now, a lot of their votes 30-40% will go to We Continue the change.

   Other than that it’s probably the party people trust the most, including myself. They won the capital Sofia over GERB last elections and it’s mostly young people who vote for them. Last elections we had a poll in r/bulgaria and they got over 70% of the votes.

   **ITN – Corruption rating 5/10.**

   The populist party of own Jay Leno/Johny Carson. They won over GERB last time, but did jackshit and failed completely to get the other parties of change to back them up. They also suggested some potentially corrupt and some well known people who were close to Dogan. It’s a complete mistery how they will do this time imho. They are also the opposite of DB I would say. And by that I mean people who for them in rural areas/smaller cities are the same people that vote for DB in Sofia.

   **Revival – Antivax/10.**

   Their leader is a political opportunist funded by the Russians and barely got 3% last time, he is using heavy antivax and green certificate rhetoric to get over 4% now and chances are he will get them.

   There is alot more ot be said, especially about Borisov and Radev being an open war.

9. Me after having to vote a third time (and presumably a forth time since I think there is gonna be a second ballot for president)

   Ah shit here we go again.

10. Who wrote this?!? “We continue the change” is anything but centre-left or eurofederalist. Volt being a part of the coalition means jack shit since they have no influence. Realistically WCTC is one of the many centrist, populist, anti-corruption parties that have come and gone in Bulgarian politics.

11. In all honesty I want the stalemate to continue cause it looks like Bulgaria will break Belgium’s record of not having a government. After that they can have one.

12. Welp. See you again at next one.

13. GERB & DPS – These two have ruled the country for the past 12 years. They are **thoroughly corrupt**. Their control of state institutions was absolute until last spring’s elections. They have lost some of that since then, but they still control the prosecution which effectively cripples the state as there is no rule of law. They have pocketed hundreds of millions EU funds. Anyone who associates with them is despicable and thus all other parties avoid them.

    BSP – direct progeny of the Bulgarian Communist Party after the USSR’s dissolution. It’s filled with former communist party members and their relatives and offspring. Very corrupt, but have been in opposition for the last 12 years, thus a lot of their influence has waned. Over 50% of their voter base is people over 60. The problem is you can’t form a government without their help, as the change parties lack the majority.

    ITN – the definition of a populist party. Get the power back to the people, destroy the establishment etc. Established by talk show icon Slavi Trifonov. They managed to win the last election but were still 25% short of a majority. They had to work with the other anti-establishment parties. Instead, they single-handedly torpedoed the talks with those other parties, which led to yet another election. They didn’t want to cooperate, they wanted to lead. They didn’t ask for help, they demanded it. The other parties were supposed to just be yes-men, which they refused.

    DB and PP – modern, change parties. PP emerged from the provisional government, founded by two of it’s most well liked members. These two parties are filled with young people (for the most part) and are supported by young people, all of which want change for their country. These two parties are the only hope for a better future at this present time. However, they severely lack the votes for a majority and will have to work with ITN and/or BSP to form a government.

    Revival – anti-vax, anti-EU, nationalist drivel.

    Overall, the chance of forming a government is low. The chance of forming a *stable* government is even lower.

14. No one is certain once again if there will be a government out of this… The only difference will be that this time there will be the interim + parliament for a bit longer because a parliament can’t be dissolved 3 months before the presidential mandate ends. But after that, no one knows.

15. Why should I vote for Continue Change?

16. After 3-4 more elections (during 2022 probably) the number of people that don’t give a fuck will be easily 60+%. At least it isn’t that sunny but also not raining so people might go to actually vote, unlike the summer. We reached the point where weather affects the elections…

17. Weird to me how much time news stations spend talking about bulgarians who are voting from abroad.

18. When will we see first results?