China holds what the US needs – but Trump’s tantrums could blow it all up

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1. When Trump and Xi meet on Thursday in the city of Busan in South Korea, the world’s most consequential trading relationship will be on the line. 

   Xi seems bewildered by Trump’s unpredictable nature. The US President’s behaviour flies in the face of the focus, strategic calculation and long-term thinking that Beijing traditionally adopts in all negotiations, especially those related to trade. 

   Trump wants to bring China to heel but Beijing has repeatedly retaliated against his tariff threats, like a parent punishing a toddler having a tantrum

2. There are other rare earth sources, the process is just toxic

3. Listening to people I know saying Tarrifs work and they are the right move has just been a wild experience.

4. To be clear the USA has an almost endless supply of rare Earth’s if they choose to recycle old military equipment.

5. The US economy is built on consumption and services. It’s actual bottom lines are Big Law, Consulting, Finance & Big Tech, much of which are essentially immune to Chinese tariffs because they mostly operate domestically. Even in consumption, most consumption is produced locally like in food or construction.

   Chinese export controls or tariffs may hurt US manufacturers, but this is like 1% of the economy, especially for rare earths, where it only really matters for the military. Nobody is going to care much if some high tech manufacturing firm fails because the job losses would be insignificant.

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