Published on
October 27, 2025
A pivotal moment for aviation sustainability within the European Union has been marked by the release of the latest ReFuelEU Aviation Technical Report by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). The analysis, which has been established as setting the baseline for EU SAF monitoring, provides the first comprehensive review of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) activity across the bloc. Initial data on Sustainable Aviation Fuel supply, emissions savings and investment trends across European Union States are comprehensively provided within the new EASA analysis, signalling a crucial step toward meeting upcoming blending mandates.
Baseline Established and Leaders Identified
The report, which covers data from 2024, has established that year as the definitive baseline for tracking progress toward the mandatory ReFuelEU Aviation blending targets. Crucially, it was noted that only about 0.6% of the aviation fuel supplied throughout 2024 was represented by Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The feasibility of meeting the subsequent 2030 target of 6% was assessed and it was indicated that this goal could be reached under optimistic production scenarios.
Significantly, five Member States were identified as the current leaders in SAF production, with commercial-scale output already being undertaken. These nations—Finland, France, Germany, Spain and Italy—are shouldering the majority of the European Union’s initial capacity for low-carbon aviation. Much of the current European Union Sustainable Aviation Fuel supply is accounted for by specific, large-scale facilities across these leading countries. These production hubs include Neste’s Porvoo refinery in Finland, TotalEnergies’ facilities at La Mède and Grandpuits in France, BP’s Lingen refinery in Germany, Repsol’s refineries in Spain and Eni’s new 400 kt-per-year Gela biorefinery in Italy.
Continued Development Across the European Bloc
While a large share of the current supply is concentrated in Finland, France, Germany, Spain and Italy, development continues to be recorded across other Member States. For example, a joint EU-funded study on regional production potential is currently being conducted by Estonia and Latvia. Furthermore, their first large-scale SAF plants are actively being built by Poland’s Orlen and Romania’s OMV, showing a commitment to future capacity. Policy initiatives are also being advanced; Ireland’s first national policy roadmap, for instance, was published in August 2025. In terms of offtake, agreements have been secured by Luxembourg’s Cargolux and Lux-Airport with Norsk e-Fuel. However, the report also noted a lack of current domestic capacity, as Malta, Lithuania and Slovenia currently report having none.
Market Shifts and Production Projections
The market outlook for Sustainable Aviation Fuel capacity growth was also detailed. EASA projects that the total European Union output could reach between 1.4 and 5.9 million tonnes by 2030, a range which is dependent on various factors such as overall buildout rates and the progress of investment. However, a significant area of concern was also identified: synthetic fuel projects. These initiatives were reported to remain behind schedule, with no facilities having yet reached the final investment decision stage.
The status of global investment was highlighted as an active and dynamic issue. In one example since the close of the summer, a $150 million investment fund for Sustainable Aviation Fuel was announced through a major airline partnership. Conversely, a major European project was recently scrapped when Shell closed a planned facility that would have been one of the continent’s largest processing centres. This decision was attributed to the necessity of balancing affordability with customer demands in the volatile fuels market.
Commission’s Confident Outlook on Future Targets
In light of the recent plant closure, confidence was expressed by the European Commission regarding the bloc’s ability to reach its mandated 2034 SAF targets. European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told AVweb that the Commission remained confident in achieving the goals.
The spokesperson stated that, based on announced investments, projections showed that Sustainable Aviation Fuel production in the European Union was expected to reach the mandated SAF targets until 2034. Furthermore, it was noted that SAF producers and airlines were being encouraged by the Commission to produce and purchase SAF over and above the targets, respectively. Several measures were stated to be available for bridging the price gap between SAF and conventional aviation fuel. It was announced that the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan, which is slated for adoption in the Autumn, would aim to further facilitate long-term SAF offtake agreements.
Itkonen also conveyed that the Commission was keeping a close watch on the fuels market as its development is attempted in accordance with ReFuelEU plans. Crucially, it was stressed that transparency for airlines on the price of SAF and the establishment of a competitive liquid SAF market would be key to incentivising airlines to buy SAF above the targets. The foundational contributions from Finland, France, Germany, Spain and Italy are seen as central to establishing the necessary industrial base for the European Union to meet these critical future Sustainable Aviation Fuel objectives.
Image Credit- TotalEnergies
