Weekly Significant Activity Report – October 25, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from October 18 to October 25 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

   Major events for this week included:

   1. Russia again rebuffed US mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine short of its maximalist goals. Russia has slightly modified its diplomatic efforts to attain its war aims by pursuing a multi-faceted diplomatic strategy to divide the US, Europe, and Ukraine, and deter the US from escalation through indirect nuclear signaling.
   2. The Chinese Communist Party conducted its Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee. The plenum addressed both internal Party issues and the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan which begins in 2026. The composition of the Central Committee and the wording of the official communique highlight Xi’s increasingly absolute power within the CCP.
   3. China accused the US of a prolonged cyber espionage campaign against its National Time Service Center.
   4. A new report released by the Institute for Science and International Security identified new construction at a previous secret Iranian nuclear weapons research site near Tehran.
   5. North Korea conducted its first missile test in months. Pyongyang claims the launch was the first test of its new hypersonic missiles.

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