Natural gas prices spiked to an intraday high of $4.157 early Friday, briefly surpassing the October 22 peak of $4.139 but stopping short of the October 2 high of $4.211.
This move followed Thursday’s 3.7% gain, with December Nymex futures closing at $3.959. Traders pointed to a strong move above the 50-day moving average ($3.884) as a technical trigger, while swing chart analysis reinforced a short-term uptrend.
Key resistance levels at $4.211 and the 200-day moving average at $4.462 are now in focus.
Is Weather Still a Bearish Anchor in the Near Term?
Despite recent price gains, near-term weather remains a drag. Forecasts through early November call for moderate to light heating demand, with much of the U.S. under seasonal or warmer-than-normal temperatures.
However, this is shifting. Forecasting firm Atmospheric G2 noted a cooler trend for the eastern U.S. between November 9–13, which could begin to translate into stronger residential and commercial demand.
What Role Is LNG Demand Playing in Price Support?
LNG feed gas flows hit a record 16.7 Bcf/day on Thursday, providing a major tailwind. While that’s just slightly down on a weekly basis, the consistency of strong export demand continues to tighten the balance sheet. Electricity demand also remains firm, with the Edison Electric Institute reporting a 1.9% year-over-year gain in U.S. output for the week ending October 25.