Reports from U.S. media about the U.S. military planning airstrikes on Venezuela triggered a sharp rise, followed by a rapid retreat after Trump’s denial on social media.

FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported on Friday (October 31) that international oil prices experienced significant volatility: after media reports claimed that ‘the US military might carry out airstrikes against Venezuela within hours,’ oil prices surged. However, following President Donald Trump’s denial of the reports on social media, the market quickly reversed its gains. #CrudeOilReview#

As of 11:12 AM Central Time on Thursday (1612 GMT), Brent crude futures rose by 6 cents to $65.06 per barrel, a gain of 0.09%; while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell slightly by 7 cents to $60.50 per barrel, marking a decline of 0.12%.

Senior analyst Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group commented, ‘The market was clearly shocked when it heard about the ‘planned airstrike on Venezuela.’ If an attack were to occur over the weekend, oil prices would inevitably soar on Monday.’

Flynn joked, ‘Is this Trump’s Halloween surprise (trick or treat)?’

He also reminded that Trump had previously denied similar reports before launching airstrikes against Iran.

According to multiple media reports, the United States has deployed a strike group centered around the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean, far exceeding the scale of previous operations targeting small drug trafficking vessels, raising concerns about potential escalation of military actions.

Stronger dollar pressures oil prices; Saudi Arabia may cut crude oil prices for Asia

The US dollar’s exchange rate against major currencies is nearing a three-month high, increasing the cost of dollar-denominated commodities, including crude oil, for non-US buyers.

Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may lower its official selling price for crude oil to Asian buyers in December to a multi-month low, which the market interprets as a bearish signal.

The rapid retreat in oil prices after an initial surge was further weighed down by China’s official manufacturing PMI contracting for the seventh consecutive month in October.

Increased production from OPEC+ and eased supply conditions suppress upward momentum.

Despite heightened geopolitical risks in the short term, market fundamentals remain relatively loose. In October, Brent crude oil and WTI are expected to fall by 2.6% and 2.0%, respectively. This is mainly due to the continued increase in output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC major oil producers. The additional supply is expected to buffer export disruptions caused by Western sanctions on Russian oil, especially import substitution demand from its main buyers, China and India.

A Reuters survey shows that analysts expect the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 to be $67.99 per barrel, 38 cents higher than last month’s forecast; the average price for WTI crude oil is projected at $64.83, slightly above the September forecast of $64.39.

Saudi exports hit a six-month high, while U.S. crude oil production reaches a new record.

Sources indicate that OPEC+ is inclined to announce a modest production increase at its December meeting.

The latest data shows that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports reached 6.407 million barrels per day in August, hitting a six-month high.

A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. crude oil production last week hit a new record, reaching 13.6 million barrels per day, further strengthening expectations of abundant supply.

U.S.-China energy trade sends optimistic signals, but analysts remain skeptical.

Trump stated on Thursday that China has agreed to initiate the process of purchasing American energy products, mentioning the possibility of a “very large deal” involving the import of crude oil and natural gas from Alaska.

However, most energy analysts remain cautious, questioning whether the U.S.-China trade agreement can substantially boost China’s energy demand from the United States.

Summary: A Tug-of-War Between Geopolitical Risks and Supply Surpluses

In summary, short-term oil prices are driven by sharp fluctuations fueled by geopolitical rumors, but the medium- to long-term trend remains constrained by ample supply and slowing demand.

Market participants believe that unless there is a substantive military conflict or an unexpected production cut by OPEC+, oil prices will struggle to break out of the range-bound trading pattern.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, summarized: “The market’s nerves have been triggered by geopolitical risks, but the reality of supply surpluses makes it difficult for oil prices to sustain upward momentum.”