Occidental Petroleum recently attracted heightened investor interest following new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which have pushed crude prices higher and improved its near-term earnings outlook.
Ongoing purchases by members of Congress, as well as Berkshire Hathaway’s long-term position, highlight sustained confidence in Occidental’s U.S. oil and gas assets and its leadership in carbon capture initiatives.
We’ll now explore how rising crude prices, driven by recent sanctions, could influence Occidental Petroleum’s investment narrative and future outlook.
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Owning Occidental Petroleum is ultimately a bet on stable or rising oil prices and the successful expansion of carbon capture technology, with short-term earnings still tied closely to oil market swings. While the recent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies have provided support to crude prices, boosting the most immediate earnings catalyst, they do not remove the core risk of price volatility and exposure to changes in global oil demand, which continues to overshadow the company’s outlook.
Against this backdrop, Occidental’s ongoing discussions to sell its OxyChem division for approximately US$10,000,000,000 are particularly relevant. If completed, such a divestiture could help reduce leverage from recent acquisitions and large capital projects, supporting flexibility as the company navigates an unpredictable oil market while working to monetize new technologies like the Stratos direct air capture facility.
However, with oil prices remaining highly unpredictable, investors should also be aware that a sharp secular downturn in demand could…
Read the full narrative on Occidental Petroleum (it’s free!)
Occidental Petroleum’s outlook projects $29.0 billion in revenue and $3.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on analysts’ assumptions of 2.2% annual revenue growth and a $2.0 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.7 billion.
Uncover how Occidental Petroleum’s forecasts yield a $50.48 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.
OXY Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
Private investors in the Simply Wall St Community have set Occidental’s fair value anywhere from US$31.19 to US$63.64, based on 25 independent views. While some expect upside, most see the company’s heavy dependence on oil prices as a key variable shaping long-term returns.