In addition to our updates on the Trump administration and government shutdown, we’re keeping an eye on key races in several states that will hold elections on November 4.
These off-cycle elections are the traditional first test of voters’ reaction to the presidency and take on added dimension given the shutdown.
Virginia governor: Virginia’s election for governor takes place in the shadow of an unpopular GOP administration in Washington, DC.
In a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll, negative comments about President Donald Trump or Republicans came second only to concerns about economic issues and the cost of living.
Polls have found Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a stable advantage over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears among likely voters.
New Jersey governor: New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is a tale of two incumbents: Trump is unpopular there as well, but the state’s outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy also draws closely divided ratings.
Many recent surveys have found Democrat Mikie Sherrill with an edge among likely voters, hovering around the 50% mark, while her opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, stands closer to 45%.
New York City mayor: Surveys of likely voters have been largely consistent in showing Democrat Zohran Mamdani with a double-digit lead over his nearest rival, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, with Republican Curtis Sliwa in third.
California redistricting: Voters are weighing Proposition 50, a ballot measure to temporarily enact a new congressional map drawn by Democrats in response to Republican-driven redistricting in other states.
A mid-October poll from CBS/YouGov found 62% of likely voters in support of Proposition 50, while an October Public Policy Institute of California poll put that support at 56%.
It’s worth noting that past research has found that polling sometimes overshoots support for initiatives that implement new changes, because some voters ultimately default to preferring the status quo.