The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela: If Past Is Prologue, a U.S. Attempt to Overthrow Maduro Would Not End Well

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1. [SS from the essay by Alexander B. Downes, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at The George Washington University; and Lindsey A. O’Rourke, Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College]

   What began in early September as a series of American airstrikes on boats in the Caribbean—which U.S. officials alleged were trafficking drugs from Venezuela—now seems to have morphed into a campaign to overthrow Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Over the course of two months, President Donald Trump’s administration has deployed 10,000 U.S. troops to the region, amassed at least eight U.S. Navy surface vessels and a submarine around South America’s northern coast, directed B-52 and B-1 bombers to fly near the Venezuelan coastline, and ordered the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group—which the U.S. Navy calls the “most capable, adaptable, and lethal combat platform in the world”—to U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility.

   These moves reflect a recent, broad shift in the administration’s policy toward Venezuela. As reported by several major news outlets, for months after Trump’s January inauguration, internal debate pitted long-time advocates of regime change—led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—against officials who favored a negotiated settlement with Caracas, including the president’s special envoy Richard Grenell. During the first half of 2025, the negotiators held the upper hand: Grenell met with Maduro and struck deals to open Venezuela’s expansive oil and mineral sectors to U.S. firms in exchange for economic reforms and the release of political prisoners. But by mid-July, Rubio reclaimed the initiative by reframing the stakes. Ousting Maduro, he argued, was no longer just about promoting democracy—it was a matter of homeland security. He recast the Venezuelan leader as a narcoterrorist kingpin fueling the United States’ drug crisis and illegal immigration, tying him to the Tren de Aragua gang and claiming that Venezuela was now “governed by a narco-trafficking organization that has empowered itself as a nation state.”

   That narrative appears to have persuaded Trump. 

2. If Trump’s past is any indication, after a while of military buildup he’ll just declare “victory” under whatever pretenses and will count it as one more “war” which he “ended”. Not much will change in Venezuela.

3. I am very skeptical of the Trump administration’s ability to actually make Venezuela a better place.

   That said, Maduro has proven, time and time again, that he will never give up power willingly. The routes of both electoral change and peaceful protest have been completely closed off by the regime. If one supports democracy and human rights in Venezuela, *there is no other option* than to overthrow him.

   Ideally, this effort would be entirely owned and led by the Venezuelan people. But Maduro’s regime has become very effective at neutralizing public dissent and coup-proofing the military (partially through repeated purges, and partially by giving it stakes in the oil sector, as well as illegal mining and narcotics operations). The reality is that the Venezuelan people have little hope of overthrowing Maduro without foreign support.

   Given that, it should be no surprise that Venezuelan dissidents are asking the United States to help overthrow Maduro, and I don’t think they should be condemned for asking for that, either. It is not as if Maduro’s regime is entirely self-reliant, so why should its opponents be expected to be?

   The honest truth is that anyone still opposed in principle to overthrowing Maduro (and not just to the Trump administration’s particular plan for doing so) is either uniformed, naive, or carrying water for his regime. Given that the authors of this essay are affiliated with the Quincy Institute, I’m not sure which is most likely.

4. The problem for Trump is that if the operation fails and Maduro stays president in 2026, it will mean that America’s ability to change regimes has become laughable.

5. MAGAmuricans don’t give a single shit about a happy ending for Venezuela or any of these other countries lol.

   They don’t even want a good ending for two thirds of America.

6. Sounds insane, but given the current state of affairs I could see Russia and China supply defensive weapons to Venezuela to make this a whole lot more interesting.

7. It’s ridiculous at this point to think it’s possible that the US could be embarrassed by installing an undemocratic, violent regime.

8. This one is different 🤣

9. Yeah, occupation and nation building wouldn’t go well for us there anymore than it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, and simply knocking over the government and leaving would trigger an immediate civil war and famine.

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