While 86 per cent of the experts and economists in Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey expect a hold from the RBA today, five respondents are going against the grain and predicting a cut.

Let’s have a look at what they’re saying about the board’s big decision.

Tomasz Wozniak, The University of Melbourne – “It’s definitely a possibility! That’s what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100 per cent certain about the course of action.

“And that’s what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the cut, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a hold decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it’s a cut. But I’m not 100 per cent certain.”

Brodie Haupt, WLTH – “Unemployment unexpectedly surged in September to a 4-year high with some experts fearful of a stalling economy.”

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University – “The Australian economy has for some time in 2025 been close to its longer run average for inflation, GDP growth and unemployment, which suggests to me that monetary policy should already be neutral, not mildly restrictive.

“The September 2025 unemployment rate jumped to 4.5 per cent and the Q2 trimmed mean inflation rate was 2.7 per cent, which should have provided enough extra evidence for the RBA to decide to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in November.

“However, trimmed mean inflation increased marginally to 3 per cent in the 3rd quarter 2025 (which was largely expected because of the expiry of government rebates for electricity). Though the RBA Board will be concerned about the mixed messages, I expect them to cut the cash rate in recognition that the downside macroeconomic risks dominate.”

Micaela Fuchila, Jarden – “At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained.”

Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics – “Rising unemployment risks hitting 5% while monetary policy remains tight.”