Putin has two options – a war of attrition or getting Trump to do his dirty work

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1. The current focus of the [Ukraine war](https://inews.co.uk/topic/russia-ukraine-war?ico=in-line_link) is the rubbled city of [Pokrovsk](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/all-need-know-ukrainian-drones-hit-russian-oil-terminal-4016558?ico=in-line_link). Despite Friday’s unexpected helicopter raid by Ukrainian commandos, the question seems to be when, not if, it will fall, with Kyiv admitting on Monday that “thousands” of Russian troops were in or approaching the city.

   Assuming Pokrovsk falls, it will be the most significant Russian gain since they [took Avdiivka last year](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-equipment-loss-save-ukraine-2998167?ico=in-line_link), and open the way to further advances in the contested [Donetsk region](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukraine-bracing-battle-key-town-russia-claims-major-breakthrough-3835562?ico=in-line_link). Yet this battle is also part of the odd negotiating courtship between [Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-putin-bromance-blown-up-4018538?ico=in-line_link).

   Trump’s approach to Kyiv could charitably be described as changeable. Last month, he was suggesting a willingness to let Kyiv have accurate and long-range [Tomahawk cruise missiles](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/storm-shadow-helping-ukraine-trump-dithers-tomahawk-3995027?ico=in-line_link) in the lead up to a White House visit by [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://inews.co.uk/topic/volodymyr-zelensky?ico=in-line_link). Then Putin initiated a phone call, Tomahawks were off the agenda, and a summit in Budapest was on.

   After an unproductive call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his US counterpart Marco Rubio, in which it became clear that Putin was not willing to moderate his maximalist demands, the pendulum swung again. Budapest was off, Tomahawks back in play, and Trump imposed the first [sanctions](https://inews.co.uk/topic/sanctions-against-russia?srsltid=AfmBOorlwWCT8HCdtiGS3scNV16bhi97igllVft4QzDXSnrYQdnUoGXc&ico=in-line_link) of his presidency on Russia, [hitting the oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft](https://inews.co.uk/news/trump-new-russia-sanctions-companies-us-targeting-3996271?ico=in-line_link).

   So was Trump warming to Ukraine’s cause? Almost certainly not – the sad truth for Kyiv is that there is no evidence that he really cares about [Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/topic/ukraine?ico=in-line_link). Rather, he simply wants this war over, to burnish his claims to be a peacemaker and allow him to focus on the issues which interest him more, which may include seeing if he can win special economic access to a post-war Russia for US companies.

2. There is another way: resign, leave Russia with all his wealth to live in North Korea. Forget it ever happened and let Russia sort things out without him.

3. He’ll take both

4. Trump can’t really force Zelensky into territory concessions as long as Europe is providing all Ukraine support though, if they weren’t he’d already have handed over the Donbas to Putin

5. Sure, Putin would love Trump to force Ukraine to surrender. But as we’ve already seen, Trump doesn’t have any cards to play. Ukraine has done an astonishingly good job of building it’s own domestic defense industry to sustain the war. Ukraine’s European allies have likewise ramped up their military industry sufficiently to make a meaningful contribution.

   The result is that Putin is stuck with an indefinite war of attrition, destroying the Russian state, no matter how much Trump tries to help his buddy. Sure, Ukraine would achieve victory faster (and with a vastly lower cost in life) if the US wasn’t allied with Russia, but a Ukraine victory is pretty much inevitable now. It will just take many more years to achieve. Vietnam had to fight for decades, and expend millions of casualties, but they were eventually triumphant. Ukraine will do the same.

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