Experts: Odds against holding Japan-North Korea summit

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s request to North Korea for a summit with its leader, Kim Jong Un, appears likely to be rejected or ignored, according to Japanese officials and experts on foreign affairs.

At a Nov. 3 rally in Tokyo to demand the return of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea, Takaichi disclosed that she had called on the North Korean side to arrange a meeting with Kim.

However, Pyongyang has not budged from its stance that the abduction issue has already been resolved.

North Korea, which has been deepening cooperation with Russia and China, has also not responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for a U.S.-North Korea summit.

“It is hard to imagine North Korea engaging in dialogue with Japan before doing so with the United States,” a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

To maintain its regime, North Korea is seeking international recognition as a nuclear-armed state.

Experts believe that economic assistance is unlikely to serve as a bargaining chip with North Korea, and that negotiations with Japan rank low on Pyongyang’s list of priorities.

Despite these doubts, expectations are high, particularly among her conservative supporters, for Takaichi to resolve the abduction issue.

She has styled herself as the successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who made the abduction issue the top priority of his administration.

“We will leave no stone unturned to resolve outstanding issues with North Korea, including securing the earliest possible return of all abductees,” Takaichi told a Lower House session on Nov. 4.

In 2002, then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi met with Kim Jong Il, the father of Kim Jong Un, in Pyongyang for the first Japan-North Korea summit, which led to the return of five abductees.

Abe and his successors explored the possibility of holding a meeting with Kim Jong Un, who took over after his father died in 2011, but none succeeded in making it happen.

In a statement issued in March 2024, Kim Yo Jong, a senior official of the Workers’ Party of Korea and Kim Jong Un’s influential sister, declared that Pyongyang “refuses any contact or negotiations with the Japanese side.”

“That statement remains the baseline for the current Japan-North Korea relationship,” a government source said.

Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi’s predecessor, expressed interest in opening liaison offices in Tokyo and Pyongyang, but no progress was made.

“We have been making various approaches to North Korea through multiple channels,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told a news conference on Nov. 4. “It is important that our country acts on its own initiative.”