Central banks remain a key pillar of demand for gold. In 3Q, central banks increased their buying pace following two consecutive quarters of slowing purchases. They bought an estimated 220 tonnes of gold in the quarter, 28% higher than the 2Q total and 6% above the five-year quarterly average.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the largest buyer in 3Q, while the Central Bank of Brazil added gold for the first time since 2021. Poland remains the largest buyer of gold so far in 2025 with 67 tonnes.
And central banks are still hungry for more gold. South Korea’s central bank is said to be considering adding gold to its reserves, for the first time since 2013. Serbia’s president also recently said that the country’s gold reserves will almost double to 100 tonnes by 2030.
Key downside risk for gold looking ahead would be if central banks decided to sell their reserves. In the Philippines, Benjamin Diokno, a board member of the central bank, recently said the bank should sell some of its “excessive” gold holdings. In the US, Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed that the country sell a portion of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin.
However, we believe the shift in central banks’ purchases has been more structural and they will continue to add gold to their reserves, as strategies on currency reserves shift.