A senior Iranian regime lawmaker reveals a sharp decline in the country’s oil income due to heavy price cuts and reduced sales volumes, contradicting recent claims by the oil minister of improved exports.
A senior member of Iran regime’s parliament has confirmed a steep decline in the country’s oil revenues, citing extensive discounts to buyers and a drop in both global prices and export volumes.
Hadi Ghavami, deputy head of the parliament’s Budget and Planning Commission, told the state-run Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) that out of 930 trillion tomans in projected oil-related income for the current fiscal year, only 151 trillion tomans have been realized in the first six months. According to him, “by this stage, 474 trillion tomans should have been collected,” meaning that only about 32% of the expected revenue has materialized, leaving a shortfall of more than 322 trillion tomans.
Ghavami attributed the decline to falling oil prices and deepening discounts offered by Tehran. “The price of oil has dropped from $71 last year to $51 now, which is the result of the discounts given to our oil customers,” he said.
He further revealed that Iran’s oil exports have decreased from 1.8 million barrels per day in the most optimistic scenario to around 1.6 million barrels—or possibly even less. “Both the volume of oil sold and its price have fallen. Perhaps exports look fine on paper, but the inflow of oil money into the country is not good,” he added.
These remarks stand in contrast to recent comments by Iran regime’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, who claimed that the country’s oil exports had “significantly improved” compared to previous years. Without providing figures, Paknejad said, “If I could reveal the numbers, you would see how much better the situation is than before.”
Due to international sanctions, details of Iran regime’s oil exports remain classified. However, reports indicate that the regime has long relied on steep discounts, primarily to China, to maintain sales amid U.S. pressure.
The reactivation of the UN “snapback” mechanism and the possible reinstatement of multilateral sanctions now threaten to further constrict Tehran’s oil trade.
The maritime tracking website TankerTrackers reported in late October that most Iranian-flagged oil tankers have once again turned off their transponders, concealing their positions to evade monitoring. Since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018 under President Donald Trump, Iran’s regime has increasingly resorted to covert shipping tactics to circumvent restrictions on oil exports.
Meanwhile, traditional buyers such as India and South Korea remain wary of secondary sanctions. Yet, in a notable exception, India recently announced that the United States had granted it a six-month sanctions waiver to continue operations at Iran’s Chabahar port. India has been involved in developing the strategic port since 2014 and signed a ten-year agreement with Tehran last year to manage and expand its terminals.
With declining revenues, tighter sanctions, and limited access to international financial systems, Iran’s oil sector—once the backbone of its economy—faces mounting pressure, further straining the regime’s already fragile fiscal stability.